It looks bad, certainly. I noticed some time ago that their website was stripped down -- their forums were killed, after being there for years -- and then a couple of weeks ago it went down completely... and stayed that way. And now rumors are coming that it's being shut down. And because of the name and the history, I care. This well might be false, but either way it shows what state they are in now and it's very, very sad.
The more I think about this presidential election, the better I feel about it, really.
Now, everyone knows I'm quite conservative, and thus, I am fully in support of Bush's re-election. He even sent me a 5x7 photo of himself and his wife, and a card making me an official supporter, because I sent him a pittance of a donation.
Everyone also knows that I dislike Kerry quite a lot, and I think he would be an awful leader for America. Unfortunately, there are a lot of misguided people who hate Bush even more than I hate Kerry, and would put anyone in office as long as his name wasn't Bush.
The polls variably have both candidates even. This makes me very happy.
In May 1984, Walter Mondale led Reagan by several points. He went on to win a single state in the general election, suffering what I think is the most lopsided defeat in history. Now, I don't see Bush carrying 49 states, but I do see him winning this election, by a comfortable margin. There are several reasons why.
1. There is no Pro-Kerry crowd. I sincerely believe most democrats could honestly care less who was on their ticket, so long as he had a fighting chance at taking out Bush. Liberals LOVE Kerry, because his voting record is extraordinarly left of center, but his average constituency really doesn't care about him or his (lack of) issues. They want Bush gone. Historically, "Anybody but X" campaigns don't tend to do so well. Abraham Lincoln could testify to that.
2. Kerry's support is very fluid, and is almost totally dependent on how the Iraq war goes. The liberal media realize this and paint as terrible a picture as can reasonbly be painted about the war, but when you get past the sensationalism, the truth is, few wars in history have gone as smoothly and quickly as Iraq. His campaign lives or dies depending on how we do in Iraq. Kerry and the Democrats secretly love when something bad happens. They were cheering about Abu Ghraib. They raise their fists in the air every time one of our servicemen dies. It's another step forward for them. They are hoping the transfer of power on June 30th is a terrible disaster. Because, if it goes well, Kerry's bid for power is fucked. The economy is on the rebound, jobs are on the rise, and most people could care less about the traditional liberal causes right now.
On the flip side, Bush supporters by and large are far more loyal to the President. We are voting to keep Bush in, not to keep Kerry out (laudable as that goal is). We believe Bush is the better man for the job, we believe he has done well and will continue to do well. Most of us support the aims and goals of the war, and are confident in our ultimate victory.
3. Show of strength. And this is the biggest point, I think. As I said, the polls show a dead heat. But, what is important to note is that everyone who hates Bush is already in full force. They are already mobilized and doing their damnedest to get Bush out. Bush supporters have hardly begun to fully mobilize and form a solid base of support for George Bush. Simply put, the Democrats look very strong right now. But, unless Iraq goes sour, they are as strong as they can get right now. They are at their peak. And the Republicans are nowhere near theirs. And even with that being true, they enjoy a statistical dead heat with Kerry. Once the Bush campaign starts to shift into gear, and his supporters begin to rally, the gap between Bush and Kerry will widen, considerably I think. Again, a bad hand of cards in Iraq could jeopardize this somewhat, but it would honestly take a pretty incredible disaster to give Kerry a late surge, enough to win this election.
It doesn't really help Kerry that his voting record is far more liberal than most people tolerate, and that on many important current issues, he changes his positions constantly. He is a weak candidate, the strongest of a group of weak Democratic candidates, and I'm confident that he is going to see his hopes for victory diminish as November gets closer.
This isn't a rant, it's merely commentary. It's how I see things unfolding. I hope that this will not turn into an issue-based bickering, and that if you disagree with me, that you'll tell me how you think it will turn out and why it will turn out differently, instead of what it usually turns into.
