Quote:Updated: Sunday, 30 July 2006
EXCLUSIVE: E3 FINISHED
By Colin Campbell
Senior industry sources have revealed to Next-Gen.Biz that the E3 industry event, in its present form, has been cancelled for next year and the foreseeable future.
Image The Entertainment Software Association (ESA) shindig has been a staple of game industry life since the mid-1990s. However, we understand the larger exhibitors have jointly decided that the costs of the event do not justify the returns, generally measured in media exposure.
Publishers believe the multi-million dollar budgets would be better spent on more company-focused events that bring attention to their own product lines rather than the industry as a whole.
Well placed sources say the news that larger exhibitors were pulling out had prompted urgent meetings among publishing executives. They decided that, without the support of the larger software publishers and hardware manufacturers, there would be no point in continuing.
ESA president Doug Lowenstein will likely announce the news some time within the next 48 hours, possibly on Monday. It's possible that the ESA will seek to limit the damage by organizing some form of lesser event in May, but it's clear that the days of an industry event attended by all the major publishers, spending big money, are gone.
Calls to ESA staff are not being returned at present.
Yes, that's 260,000 DS Lites, versus zero X-Boxes. :D
On the other hand, the X360 has passed the falling GB Micro! Progress, right? ... not really... I think that even the Japanese have realized that the Micro serves little purpose, despite its cool looks... :) (Possible DS sales explanation: there's a new pink DS Lite out in Japan...)
2) Profits are great and rising, along with attention...
Quote:In the Game Wars, Nintendo's All Charged Up
Building on the DS's success, its Wii console—cheaper, and geared to a gamut of cool games—could rack up points against Sony's new PS3
It could be a World of Warcraft moment when Sony's (SNE) PlayStation 3 and Nintendo's Wii next-generation game consoles both hit the market, as expected, in November. True, Sony stills rules this high-end segment of the game console market, but analysts are worried about a possibly shaky debut for the new PS3, which will cost a hefty $600 (see BusinessWeek.com, 7/20/2006, "Will Sony's Pricey PS3 Pay Off?").
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At the same time, Nintendo (NTDOY) is clearly on a winning streak. The Wii looks like a strong contender as a cheaper and less feature-laden, but still cool, game console alternative to Sony's PS3 and Microsoft's (MS) Xbox 360.
Nintendo's DS handheld game-player is a runaway success. Global investors have bid the share price of the Kyoto-based company up 84% over the last 12 months. "There's really very little reason to be negative on the business," says Hiroshi Kamide, an analyst at KBC Securities in Tokyo.
SUPER (MARIO) SALES. Nintendo's quarterly results out on July 25 were stellar (see BusinessWeek.com, 7/25/06, "DS Pays Off for Nintendo"). For the three months through June, Nintendo's sales rocketed 85% to $1.1 billion while operating profit increased almost eightfold to $248 million. A weak yen helped, but a tripling of DS sales to 4.54 million units was the biggest factor behind the better than expected results.
DS sales have also taken hold in the U.S. where the game-player once lagged Sony's PSP handheld. In June, Nintendo sold 600,000 DS handhelds in the U.S.—more than any other game-hardware maker—and DS titles New Super Mario Bros. and Brain Age were the first and third bestselling games.
Small wonder Nintendo is upgrading its annual sales and earnings forecast. This year, Nintendo expects to sell 17 million DS handhelds globally—an increase of one million over earlier estimates—compared to Sony's 12 million projected units sales for the PSP. For the financial year through March, 2007, the company reckons earnings will be $715 million, a rise of 27% over its previous estimate.
REACHING WOMEN. Key to the DS's popularity has been Nintendo's knack of persuading people who wouldn't normally look at games to splurge on a DS. While the PSP, like the PlayStation2, is largely the preserve of the usual 18- to 35-year-old male demographic, titles like Nintendogs and the Brain Training For Adults series are proving hits with women and the age-35-plus gamers.
One factor is that the games are relatively simple and go beyond one-person shooters and sports simulations. In Nintendogs, for example, you can teach your virtual pet tricks by calling its name, or play a game of fetch by tossing a ball with the stylus, a pen-like device that works with the touch pad. That has scored well with female gamers.
Meanwhile, the Brain Training series—Brain Age in the U.S.—which asks gamers to solve arithmetic puzzles has gone down well with baby boomers. In Japan alone, Nintendo brain-training games have sold over 4.5 million units (see BusinessWeek.com, 3/8/06, "Gamers Trained on Nintendo's Brain").
FUN TO WORK FOR. Analysts add that the DS is also more popular with game designers. That's because the DS, with its dual screens, touch-screen technology, and voice recognition, offers something different from the PSP, which in many respects is a portable version of the PS2 with games to match. KBC's Kamide says that the DS's innovations give gamemakers more room to come up with more innovative games which in turn appeal to a wider audience.
"Non-gamers are coming back because there are interesting games people want to play," says Kamide. "The PSP is a beautiful piece of kit but the games are just rehashes of what you would play on the console."
Price is another factor. The DS retails for about $120 in the U.S. while the slightly smaller and lighter DS Lite is about $10 extra. But that's still much less than a PSP which goes for around $200. Of course, the PSP can also play movies with its storage technology called universal media discs (UMD), although that doesn't seem to be a huge success. This month, retailer Target stopped selling movies in the UMD format.
IN THE BUDGET. Perhaps the bigger question, though, is whether Nintendo can replicate the success of the DS with its Wii console as it shapes up to take on Sony's PS3 and the Microsoft's XBox 360. Once again, the Nintendo offering will be much cheaper.
Sony's gadget-packed PS3 will come with a Blu-Ray DVD player, but it will be more than twice the price of the Wii, which Nintendo execs have promised won't cost more than $250. "As a budget console, we expect the Wii to find a separate niche from the PS3 and Xbox 360," says UBS Securities analyst Atsuko Kaneko.
Like the DS, the Wii will have some quirks. For instance, whereas the DS employed touch-screen technology—for example, enabling gamers to bounce a ball by tapping a touchpad—the Wii's wireless controllers can be moved through the air like swords with the movement displayed on the screen.
MORE TITLES. And as with the DS, the Wii seems to appeal to gamemakers. In a recent survey, Famitsu, a Japanese game-industry publisher, asked software creators which platforms they would most like to create games for in the future. More respondents plumped for the Wii than any other platform. DS ranked second.
Meanwhile, at its autumn games preview on July 13, traditional Sony ally Electronic Arts (ERTS) spent far more time showing off innovative Nintendo games than it did titles for the PS3. EA announced six Nintendo Wii launch titles and showed long working demos for two of those. But it offered only a short clip of a car-racing game for PS3. "Software developers are increasingly interested in creating games for these Nintendo platforms," Yuta Sakurai, an analyst at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, said in a note to clients on July 25.
Of course, not every aspect of the DS's popularity will transfer to the Wii. Families that love the handheld might own several, but are unlikely to buy more than one Wii. Likewise, the portable nature of handhelds makes them more accessible to a wider audience than consoles.
Hardcore gamers will probably prefer the raw power of PS3. And for all the positive vibes right now, the Wii isn't expected to outsell the PS3. Nomura's Sakurai says he expects PlayStation3 to sell 71 million units by 2011, compared to 40 million units for the Wii. Still, with sales and profits rising and its share price at a four-and-a-half-year high, few would disagree that these are heady days for Nintendo.
But with sales and profits down... (game sales down 30% in the last quarter, $200 million in losses -- the pre-next-gen slump and PS3 costs are killing them and that's only going to get worse)
and with statements from Sony itsself that they are sure they will make back all the money they spent developing the PS3 within five years... (that's a long time...)
Sony's got some problems on its hands, and they don't have Microsoft's infinite money pit to dig into. Oh, they're not exactly going to be leaving the console business, but it's looking more and more likely that the PS1 and PS2's level of success might not be repeated...
This place needs a front page with regularly updated Nintendo news, previews, reviews, features, etc. How about a DS Lite makeover? An Animal Crossing Wild World on-going feature much like the game's homepage. A history of Samus Aran/Link/Kirby Chronology/et al.
How about a tag under your avatar that has your DS, and soon to be Wii, friend codes?
What about giving select individuals, specifically those who can write well, a blog on the front page? They give their opinion on the industry with respects to games, news, previews, whatever. An individual could potentialy gain a fanbase, get linked to on other forums given their strong arguements, or get people who read just to find something to disagree with.
This place is home to what I think are some of the best video game message board intellects that I've come across. That is, many of you have sound or cogent arguements with a flair for conflict. USE IT. Why not write some articles? The result will either be people who agree with you and take your side (possibly joining the message board) or people who disagree and want to argue the finer points (also joining the message board). Why not discuss why the Gamecube sold the least of any Nintendo console? What Nintendo needs to do in order to reign king in the handheld market? How the Wii could become number one by being everyone's second console? Does Nintendo NEED new franchises? Can they continue to survive by simply putting new twists on characters we've come to love? Which characters have been played out? Is Mario THE gaming icon? What is Mario's appeal? How Sony's recent blunders may be Nintendo's opportunity to rise to the top. A look back at Rare; Are we missing anything? Forget next-gen, new-gen is almost here. So many more. Get some attention.
How about turning the whole site into a myspace type place, where everyone has a homepage with blog, and everyone can come together at the message board?
Oh, and drop the title of "PS3 is a steaming pile...". It seems rather juvenille.
EDIT: How about having some fun with a photo contest with your DS? "The DS Lite is a sexy peice of kit, so it only makes sense that it makes those who play it sexy as well. Show us!"
How about a front page poll of are you getting the Wii?
EDIT2: The top 10 Nintendo games of all time. Reveal one a day and make it a two week feature. Whatever game was being discussed should have a in-depth article as to why it's so great, especially among so many great games as Nintendo has.
Design a logo contest.
A countdown on the front page to the Wii release (once you know the release date, that is).
A list of the dates for Nintendo's Fusion Tour. Have someone attend and report back. I'm going to try and go to the one in October.
There's alot you can do with the front page...and you're going to have to do something with it in order for this place to grow. I think that, if you got serious about this, you'd also find quite a few Nintendophiles who would be willing to help out in any way they could with no compensation. It's an exciting time right now, what with all the hype surround the phenomenom known as the DS, and the curiousity and excitement over the different experience the Wii will be. Who knows, you could get popular, get sponsored, get free games for previews...in any case, you're going to have to start somewhere.
Interesting, and yes there are a lot of technical hurdles to overcome. Hopefully they'll manage to do just that. 50 years from now, I'd like to get my old outdated blood replaced with the latest technology, with wifi and "neowi" tech. I made neowi up. Like, in the future they invent wormholes, and they use them for the most mundane tasks at first because they be so small, like "wired wireless" internet connections. It's all in my new sci-fi story, which reads like the appendix of Lord of the Rings. It's EXCITING!
This is like the greatest debunking ever. Of course, some people are all religious about it and say "well, if you believe it's true from the start all the evidence makes sense" (which is true for pretty much anything).
I'm willing to put all the resources of TovenSolutions to work to get more members. So I'm officially opening this thread for discussion. What piece of technology can I offer or develop that will breath new life into this forum?
