9th March 2022, 1:44 PM
(8th March 2022, 11:06 PM)Weltall Wrote:(7th March 2022, 8:11 AM)Dark Jaguar Wrote:(5th March 2022, 4:41 PM)Weltall Wrote: I understand why Zelenskyy wants the no-fly zone, but in how many possible scenarios does that result in fewer Ukrainians dead or less of Ukraine destroyed?
Zelenskyy is pursuing every avenue, but it's surprising just how well he's doing so far. Putin has, for all intents and purposes, already lost this war. It'll take YEARS before he admits it, but he has. And yes, that does in fact mean he's going to keep sending his forces in there for years...
This is basically what our involvement in the middle east looked like to the outside world.
I don't think Russia can keep this up for years. Maybe not even for more than a few months.
There was a Roman emperor named Sepitmius Severus, who upon his deathbed, instructed his sons and heirs to "Enrich the military. Scorn all others." It's 1,800 years later, but this is still fantastic advice for any militant autocratic ruler. Many an autocrat found themselves rather less alive than they would like, because they lost the support of their armies. There will always be zealots and patriots in Russia, but nobody else is going to want to fight and die when they are being paid in fancy toilet paper, which can't even buy all those goods you just cannot get anymore thanks to the sanctions. Russia will always have gas, natural resources, and at least some food, but the soldiering age kids grew up with western luxuries and a vastly higher standard of living compared to even their parents. Mom and babushka might remember the bad old days and know how to live lean, but they're not the ones getting merked by Ukrainians with drones and manpads. The combination of worthless pay and being involved in a war that really couldn't be going worse for your side, is going to have very bad consequences for troop morale. By the way, their equipment is trash, and Russia has virtually no advanced electronics industry of their own. Having a lot more troops matters less when the kill ratio keeps going up thanks to the Ukrainians having access to vastly better military hardware (to say nothing of their access to NATO intelligence! We knew exactly what Russia was planning to do before their own soldiers did!
That's not to discount the discontent which is sure to rise from the civilian population, which is being directly targeted with the sanctions. Their commerce has evaporated. Their standard of living will plummet. They might tolerate the heat of the world's scorn. Will they tolerate going hungry? Or broke? How long before the enforcers of Putin's regime decide that a change might be in order?
Also, perhaps in retrospect, people can draw some parallels to US involvement in the Middle East, but there are also significant differences. First, Saddam Hussein was definitely not Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Nobody was going to miss that asshole. Secondly, the vast majority of the problems happened after the 'war' had concluded. We lost the peace, but we kicked the absolute shit out of them in the war, it was as good as won the minute it began. Russia may actually lose this war.
A good point. Russia is a mere major power and not a super power. They're also not communist and haven't been for decades but the pundits don't seem to have realized that yet. They're a further "near peer" than previously thought. If he runs out of resources to the point he's no longer able to just keep starving his own people to keep his army fed, this war ends. One way or another... You're right, no way this lasts two decades, but I doubt it'll be over in a few weeks either.
"On two occasions, I have been asked [by members of Parliament], 'Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?' I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question." ~ Charles Babbage (1791-1871)