(25th February 2022, 6:24 AM)alien space marine Wrote: the biggest area of concern within NATO is the Baltic states that have 1 million+ ethnic Russians inside their borders, Estonia for example has territorial communes on the periphery of the Russian border that are majority ethnic Russian. Putin could test NATO's resolve by inciting a third column inside those three countries to rise up and rebel just like in eastern Ukraine,which would escalate things further towards "ww3".

(25th February 2022, 12:52 AM)Dark Jaguar Wrote: The good news is sanctions seem like they really can be effective.  Russia showed economic weakness shortly after their attack.  Sadly, the Russian public will be harmed by the sanctions first, but what other choice is there?

Sending our own troops into the Ukraine won't necessarily result in nuclear war, but it also wouldn't accomplish anything.  If NATO invades and pushes out Russia, we have to stop at the Russian border.  THAT would be where the risk of nukes comes into play.  So, then what?  We pushed them out, we leave, and then they can just send the troops right back in.  Alright, we push them out, and we stay.  Now we're the occupying force.  What did that do for the Ukrainians?

Trump went and removed the best treaty we ever had with Russia...  For all we know, that may have been the impetus, but let's not forget that Russia sent in troops during Trump's tenure as well.  Trump didn't do a thing to stop it.

(27th February 2022, 4:12 PM)alien space marine Wrote: the fact Putin has open access to nuclear launch codes should keep us up at night, he's gambling everything on this war and who knows what desperate action he'd undertake if he loses.

(27th February 2022, 4:12 PM)alien space marine Wrote: the fact Putin has open access to nuclear launch codes should keep us up at night, he's gambling everything on this war and who knows what desperate action he'd undertake if he loses.

(27th February 2022, 10:51 PM)A Black Falcon Wrote:

(27th February 2022, 4:12 PM)alien space marine Wrote: the fact Putin has open access to nuclear launch codes should keep us up at night, he's gambling everything on this war and who knows what desperate action he'd undertake if he loses.

Yeah, Putin's increasingly unhinged tone is very seriously worrying.  The West needs to make it clear to Putin that we are not and will not militarily intervene, keep him from ending the world just because his war is going badly...

Here's the somewhat interesting part of that so far though -- so far, Putin hasn't been using Russia's usual "blast the target area into oblivion with artillery" tactics.  Russia never cares about some civilian casualties, of course, but so far the Russian army actually isn't just indiscriminately leveling cities, they are leaving them mostly intact.  If this changes the civilian deathtoll will dramatically increase, and the longer things go on the more he probably gets tempted towards it... since his initial plan, of a quick victory followed by folding Ukraine and Belarus back into Russia, is failing. Regardless of the military outcome, many Ukrainians clearly believe in their nation now and don't want to be Russians again.  Thank goodness Putin's plan is failing, people deserve self-determination.

Despite their struggles though, the fact is that Russia absolutely can win if they want to win the war; they are making slow gains in some areas, and have the troops to win eventually if they want to lose enough men to do it.   Ukraine has done far better than most anyone expected and is surviving Russian attacks impressively well, helped by floods of anti-tank rockets I am sure, but... they are still badly outnumbered and the war is early.  If Putin can manage to resupply his troops better and chooses an even more evil "wipe out the cities with artillery" strategy he can win, though would that be a victory worth having, on top of a steaming pile of rubble?

But right now, again, Putin isn't doing that, yet.  There have been war crimes I'm sure, but most of the fighting seems to be between the armies.  Ukraine still has working water, electricity, internet, cellphone service, and cable TV.  In areas not being attacked services continue operating.  There are even still Ukrainian fighter jets and combat drones!  You'd think a great power like Russia, even one with extremely low morale due to the horrendously awful reasoning for the war ("Putin wants Ukraine back"), but Russia's tactics here are just bizarre.  They keep throwing troops in without breaking the other sides' air defenses  and such much at all, based on a presumption of instant Ukrainian collapse that were proven wrong... so they've just kept throwing people in?  Uh.

Russia's not weak militarily though, not with enough nukes to destroy the world many times over.  But it's clear their army is full of corruption and is too reliant on dated tactics.  Anti-tank missiles have rendered tanks somewhat outdated...  It is good for Ukraine and democracy that Russia's army is such a mess, though, an easy victory followed by absorbing Ukraine into Russia would be a pretty tragic ending of a promising young democracy.

I think that, at the core of it, Russia should have seen all of their European allies / subject nations leaving them for the West  (Belarus excepted) and been introspective about it -- 'What are we doing wrong?  Why do so many nations that once believed in our system now cling to NATO?'  And such.  But instead, all Putin can think of is "solve the problem with force, MAKE them obey if they don't want to."  It's sad stuff to see.

(5th March 2022, 4:41 PM)Weltall Wrote: I understand why Zelenskyy wants the no-fly zone, but in how many possible scenarios does that result in fewer Ukrainians dead or less of Ukraine destroyed?

(5th March 2022, 4:41 PM)Weltall Wrote: I understand why Zelenskyy wants the no-fly zone, but in how many possible scenarios does that result in fewer Ukrainians dead or less of Ukraine destroyed?

(7th March 2022, 8:11 AM)Dark Jaguar Wrote:

(5th March 2022, 4:41 PM)Weltall Wrote: I understand why Zelenskyy wants the no-fly zone, but in how many possible scenarios does that result in fewer Ukrainians dead or less of Ukraine destroyed?

Zelenskyy is pursuing every avenue, but it's surprising just how well he's doing so far.  Putin has, for all intents and purposes, already lost this war.  It'll take YEARS before he admits it, but he has.  And yes, that does in fact mean he's going to keep sending his forces in there for years...

This is basically what our involvement in the middle east looked like to the outside world.

(8th March 2022, 11:06 PM)Weltall Wrote:

(7th March 2022, 8:11 AM)Dark Jaguar Wrote:

(5th March 2022, 4:41 PM)Weltall Wrote: I understand why Zelenskyy wants the no-fly zone, but in how many possible scenarios does that result in fewer Ukrainians dead or less of Ukraine destroyed?

Zelenskyy is pursuing every avenue, but it's surprising just how well he's doing so far.  Putin has, for all intents and purposes, already lost this war.  It'll take YEARS before he admits it, but he has.  And yes, that does in fact mean he's going to keep sending his forces in there for years...

This is basically what our involvement in the middle east looked like to the outside world.

I don't think Russia can keep this up for years. Maybe not even for more than a few months. 

There was a Roman emperor named Sepitmius Severus, who upon his deathbed, instructed his sons and heirs to "Enrich the military. Scorn all others." It's 1,800 years later, but this is still fantastic advice for any militant autocratic ruler. Many an autocrat found themselves rather less alive than they would like, because they lost the support of their armies. There will always be zealots and patriots in Russia, but nobody else is going to want to fight and die when they are being paid in fancy toilet paper, which can't even buy all those goods you just cannot get anymore thanks to the sanctions. Russia will always have gas, natural resources, and at least some food, but the soldiering age kids grew up with western luxuries and a vastly higher standard of living compared to even their parents. Mom and babushka might remember the bad old days and know how to live lean, but they're not the ones getting merked by Ukrainians with drones and manpads. The combination of worthless pay and being involved in a war that really couldn't be going worse for your side, is going to have very bad consequences for troop morale. By the way, their equipment is trash, and Russia has virtually no advanced electronics industry of their own. Having a lot more troops matters less when the kill ratio keeps going up thanks to the Ukrainians having access to vastly better military hardware (to say nothing of their access to NATO intelligence! We knew exactly what Russia was planning to do before their own soldiers did!

That's not to discount the discontent which is sure to rise from the civilian population, which is being directly targeted with the sanctions. Their commerce has evaporated. Their standard of living will plummet. They might tolerate the heat of the world's scorn. Will they tolerate going hungry? Or broke? How long before the enforcers of Putin's regime decide that a change might be in order?

Also, perhaps in retrospect, people can draw some parallels to US involvement in the Middle East, but there are also significant differences. First, Saddam Hussein was definitely not Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Nobody was going to miss that asshole. Secondly, the vast majority of the problems happened after the 'war' had concluded. We lost the peace, but we kicked the absolute shit out of them in the war, it was as good as won the minute it began. Russia may actually lose this war.

(5th March 2022, 4:41 PM)Weltall Wrote: I understand why Zelenskyy wants the no-fly zone, but in how many possible scenarios does that result in fewer Ukrainians dead or less of Ukraine destroyed?

(9th March 2022, 7:28 PM)Dark Jaguar Wrote: Krikzz and his family made it out of Ukraine and are heading to Spain.  He's a refugee now.