21st February 2016, 1:25 AM
Well, after today's primaries it looks like Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the definite leaders for the two party nominations.
Note: This is just a random collection of thoughts, not something organized.
On the Democratic side, I support Hillary over Bernie. He's great in a lot of ways, and is definitely best overall on banking, but there are more issues than just that and he is a very one-note candidate. Back last summer I went to Bernie's speech when here was here in Maine (huge crowd!), and it was good, but... he really is so one-note. I have never liked or agreed with the economics-driven-history argument, that is that economics matters more than anything else, and that's what Bernie speeches sound like, everything it the banks' fault and if we fix that everything will be better. I just do not believe that; the banks are one problem, but fixing banks and the economic system won't fix everything, not even close.
And probably even more importantly, Bernie can't win. Yes, some polls show him doing better than Hillary against Republicans, but that is because the Republicans have been hitting her with everything they've got for decades now, while they are being VERY quiet about Bernie, in hopes that Democrats nominate the guy. The attacks against him are easy and would be extremely effective -- he wants to massively raise your taxes, he went to the Soviet Union for his honeymoon, he's a socialist (and socialists ranked below all other terms, including 'atheist', 'muslim', and more, in a poll of whether people would vote for someone who was in various groups!), etc etc. I have relatives in Vermont and apparently Bernie does great constituent services, is at every parade and event, etc, and I can see why he's so popular there, but the whole country isn't Vermont and a Sanders candidacy would probably be disastrous in November. If he could win he'd be a good president, though I think Hillary would probably be just as good overall (better on some issues, worse on others), but how could he win? He calls for a "political revolution", but the numbers of voters in Democratic caucuses and primaries so far this year are apparently below 2008 levels, so he's not matching Obama in that respect. If he COULD get that kind of crowd reaction or more it'd be much better proof of his electability, but it's not there.
For anyone who hadn't realized it already, Scalia's death really highlights how important this election is. If the Republicans stick with refusing to allow a vote, or vote down any and all nominees Obama nominates to the court, this next president will have that choice to make for sure, plus likely more -- three other Supreme Court justices, two liberal and Kennedy, are also 75+ now and could retire or have health problems. The Supreme Court has apparently had a conservative majority for almost 45 years, since the early 1970s, and we can't miss this historic chance to turn that around! It could mean a better country... or a worse one, if a Republican gets into office. Sure, if it's Trump we have no clue who he'd nominate, but they wouldn't be as good as anyone Hillary would nominate, that's for sure.
On the note of Trump, seeing the Republican Party tear itself apart like this has been really interesting. The racist wing of their party is revolting, basically, and is backing Trump even though on so many other issues he goes against Republican party orthodoxy. Can the racist genie that the Republicans have been winning with ever since Nixon started the Southern Strategy be put back in its bottle, and will the racists go back to supporting conventional Republicans again someday, or is a major split in the making? It is horrible to see how far right the Republican party has gone on many issues, but this racists v. ultraconservatives split is a big one. (On that note though, Rubio is VERY conservative. He may be the "establishment" choice, but he's very, VERY far right.)
So yeah, it's been a very interesting election so far, and I'll be following it the whole way for sure. I hope things go well...
Note: This is just a random collection of thoughts, not something organized.
On the Democratic side, I support Hillary over Bernie. He's great in a lot of ways, and is definitely best overall on banking, but there are more issues than just that and he is a very one-note candidate. Back last summer I went to Bernie's speech when here was here in Maine (huge crowd!), and it was good, but... he really is so one-note. I have never liked or agreed with the economics-driven-history argument, that is that economics matters more than anything else, and that's what Bernie speeches sound like, everything it the banks' fault and if we fix that everything will be better. I just do not believe that; the banks are one problem, but fixing banks and the economic system won't fix everything, not even close.
And probably even more importantly, Bernie can't win. Yes, some polls show him doing better than Hillary against Republicans, but that is because the Republicans have been hitting her with everything they've got for decades now, while they are being VERY quiet about Bernie, in hopes that Democrats nominate the guy. The attacks against him are easy and would be extremely effective -- he wants to massively raise your taxes, he went to the Soviet Union for his honeymoon, he's a socialist (and socialists ranked below all other terms, including 'atheist', 'muslim', and more, in a poll of whether people would vote for someone who was in various groups!), etc etc. I have relatives in Vermont and apparently Bernie does great constituent services, is at every parade and event, etc, and I can see why he's so popular there, but the whole country isn't Vermont and a Sanders candidacy would probably be disastrous in November. If he could win he'd be a good president, though I think Hillary would probably be just as good overall (better on some issues, worse on others), but how could he win? He calls for a "political revolution", but the numbers of voters in Democratic caucuses and primaries so far this year are apparently below 2008 levels, so he's not matching Obama in that respect. If he COULD get that kind of crowd reaction or more it'd be much better proof of his electability, but it's not there.
For anyone who hadn't realized it already, Scalia's death really highlights how important this election is. If the Republicans stick with refusing to allow a vote, or vote down any and all nominees Obama nominates to the court, this next president will have that choice to make for sure, plus likely more -- three other Supreme Court justices, two liberal and Kennedy, are also 75+ now and could retire or have health problems. The Supreme Court has apparently had a conservative majority for almost 45 years, since the early 1970s, and we can't miss this historic chance to turn that around! It could mean a better country... or a worse one, if a Republican gets into office. Sure, if it's Trump we have no clue who he'd nominate, but they wouldn't be as good as anyone Hillary would nominate, that's for sure.
On the note of Trump, seeing the Republican Party tear itself apart like this has been really interesting. The racist wing of their party is revolting, basically, and is backing Trump even though on so many other issues he goes against Republican party orthodoxy. Can the racist genie that the Republicans have been winning with ever since Nixon started the Southern Strategy be put back in its bottle, and will the racists go back to supporting conventional Republicans again someday, or is a major split in the making? It is horrible to see how far right the Republican party has gone on many issues, but this racists v. ultraconservatives split is a big one. (On that note though, Rubio is VERY conservative. He may be the "establishment" choice, but he's very, VERY far right.)
So yeah, it's been a very interesting election so far, and I'll be following it the whole way for sure. I hope things go well...
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