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Election 2016 - Printable Version

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Election 2016 - A Black Falcon - 21st February 2016

Well, after today's primaries it looks like Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the definite leaders for the two party nominations.

Note: This is just a random collection of thoughts, not something organized.

On the Democratic side, I support Hillary over Bernie. He's great in a lot of ways, and is definitely best overall on banking, but there are more issues than just that and he is a very one-note candidate. Back last summer I went to Bernie's speech when here was here in Maine (huge crowd!), and it was good, but... he really is so one-note. I have never liked or agreed with the economics-driven-history argument, that is that economics matters more than anything else, and that's what Bernie speeches sound like, everything it the banks' fault and if we fix that everything will be better. I just do not believe that; the banks are one problem, but fixing banks and the economic system won't fix everything, not even close.

And probably even more importantly, Bernie can't win. Yes, some polls show him doing better than Hillary against Republicans, but that is because the Republicans have been hitting her with everything they've got for decades now, while they are being VERY quiet about Bernie, in hopes that Democrats nominate the guy. The attacks against him are easy and would be extremely effective -- he wants to massively raise your taxes, he went to the Soviet Union for his honeymoon, he's a socialist (and socialists ranked below all other terms, including 'atheist', 'muslim', and more, in a poll of whether people would vote for someone who was in various groups!), etc etc. I have relatives in Vermont and apparently Bernie does great constituent services, is at every parade and event, etc, and I can see why he's so popular there, but the whole country isn't Vermont and a Sanders candidacy would probably be disastrous in November. If he could win he'd be a good president, though I think Hillary would probably be just as good overall (better on some issues, worse on others), but how could he win? He calls for a "political revolution", but the numbers of voters in Democratic caucuses and primaries so far this year are apparently below 2008 levels, so he's not matching Obama in that respect. If he COULD get that kind of crowd reaction or more it'd be much better proof of his electability, but it's not there.

For anyone who hadn't realized it already, Scalia's death really highlights how important this election is. If the Republicans stick with refusing to allow a vote, or vote down any and all nominees Obama nominates to the court, this next president will have that choice to make for sure, plus likely more -- three other Supreme Court justices, two liberal and Kennedy, are also 75+ now and could retire or have health problems. The Supreme Court has apparently had a conservative majority for almost 45 years, since the early 1970s, and we can't miss this historic chance to turn that around! It could mean a better country... or a worse one, if a Republican gets into office. Sure, if it's Trump we have no clue who he'd nominate, but they wouldn't be as good as anyone Hillary would nominate, that's for sure.

On the note of Trump, seeing the Republican Party tear itself apart like this has been really interesting. The racist wing of their party is revolting, basically, and is backing Trump even though on so many other issues he goes against Republican party orthodoxy. Can the racist genie that the Republicans have been winning with ever since Nixon started the Southern Strategy be put back in its bottle, and will the racists go back to supporting conventional Republicans again someday, or is a major split in the making? It is horrible to see how far right the Republican party has gone on many issues, but this racists v. ultraconservatives split is a big one. (On that note though, Rubio is VERY conservative. He may be the "establishment" choice, but he's very, VERY far right.)

So yeah, it's been a very interesting election so far, and I'll be following it the whole way for sure. I hope things go well...


Election 2016 - Dark Jaguar - 21st February 2016

The longest any supreme court nominee has ever been delayed is something like 180 days. Republicans would need to set a new record of delays for that to work.

I disagree on the Sanders front, in that I don't think he's JUST about the banks (and even if he were, fixing economic inequality is a pretty important thing even if it isn't a cure-all, which it isn't). I really don't think Hillary is going to do a single thing about economic inequality.

I do agree Sanders is slated to lose the nomination though. This is based on statistical analysis.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/

I'd recommend reading this. Of all the predictors, only Nate Silver and his team have actually proven capable of predicting the outcomes of these things. They take all the polls, weight them according to which ones have shown to be effective predictors in the past (so many get dropped right there) and then weight in a long-view look at similar candidates from America's entire electoral history.

According to this, Sanders was a shoe-in for New Hampshire, but is almost completely doomed when the southern states weigh in. Also, Trump has a big issue and has HAD a big issue. Namely, Trump can't break 50% support from his own party. Yes, he's leading against all the other candidates, but when you think of all the other candidates as votes for "not trump", "not trump" beats trump handily. The republican party majority want ANYONE but Trump, and it's really only a matter of whittling down the remaining candidates until only one remains in the race. That remaining candidate will take the entirety of the "not trump" vote and he'll be the thing he hates most, a loser.


Election 2016 - Weltall - 22nd February 2016

The world is ending. I am officially to the left of ABF!

That's rite. I'm 100% Feeling the Bern as the kids say. My wife and I have donated money multiple times and I'm going to try my hand at phonebanking.

Because, he's definitely not a one-issue candidate. He's loudest about his economic policies, and let's face it: people who are chained to the ground by systematic poverty can never hope to break free of all the other chains. It's sad, but true.

What's not true is the 'one issue' meme. Not even slightly. Here are some others you'll almost always hear come up in any given public speech:

An end to the War on Drugs (and a reminder that it disproportionately targets minority populations)
Removal of cannabis from the controlled substance schedule list + decriminalization
An end to private prisons (and a reminder that we have a higher prison population than any other country on Earth)
Amnesty + a path to citizenship
Strong support for efforts to battle climate change
Champions alternative energy sources (often solar)
An end to police brutality
Demilitarizing police forces
Unconditional support for a woman's right to choose to have an abortion
Insists that health care is a fundamental human right
As is college education
Proponent for campaign finance reform, of public funding for elections, and the abolishment of Citizens United
The restoration of the Voting Rights Act
Supports measures to end discrimination against LGBTQ people in schools, workplaces and in the public sector
Abolish the death penalty
Against police action use of military force, favors military intervention only as a part of an international coalition
Against the War on Terror and unilateral military operations
Against free trade agreements of any kind
Against pervasive government surveillance programs
Against Patriot Act
Strong proponent of Social Security expansion
Proponent of major infrastructure investments in transportation, energy and other sectors
Proponent of net neutrality

I do not think that Clinton will fare well against Donald Trump in the general election. Imagine the nightmare of Clinton being attacked from the left and the right, except you won't have to. Donald will be able to attack her (and credibly) on issues like SuperPACs and corruption, plus her pro-Iraq War vote, all the while rallying the racists and the bigots as he has been doing all along. She has very high unfavorable ratings (which have proven to be murder in general elections), and nothing will help glue the fractured GOP back together (even if for one final presidential campaign) than the prospect of finally defeating Clinton once and for all, as she is a supremely hated figure on the right. And, independents (who are considerably larger in number than affiliates of either party) are vastly more comfortable with Sanders than Clinton. Clinton has the support of registered Democrats... a shrinking cohort that can't win an election by itself.

Furthermore, Clinton depresses voter turnout. It's been the case in each primary so far. Sanders set an all-time record for New Hampshire votes received, even though turnout was down something like 30% from 2008. Clearly, low turnout wasn't his fault. Her message is not inspiring, and what's worse, her campaign is simply dirty as fuck. She's personally been spreading false memes about Sanders, and she's having surrogates, famed civil rights icons, slandering Bernie Sanders (how about John Lewis trying to imply that Bernie Sanders wasn't involved in the Civil Rights marches!?). And, she's corrupt. She won't release transcripts of her paid speeches to Goldman Sachs, almost 90% of her fundraising comes from wealthy donors maxing out, she takes full advantage of Citizens' United and has no interest whatsoever in solving problems of income inequality or corruption in government. The DNC has been limiting debates to deny Sanders national exposure, and has lifted bans on SuperPAC money so as to give Clinton a fundraising advantage. All this runs the significant risk of alienating Sanders supporters come November, and she's screwed if that happens.

We need a candidate who will inspire voters to not just vote for a president every four years, but to replace the GOP in state houses, legislatures, governor's mansions and Congress. Bernie Sanders repeatedly maintains that it's not about him, and he can't do it alone. It's true. We need an energized, motivated base of voters. What do we have now? A Party that has basically given up all hope of ever dislodging Republicans from Congress, who puts up weak candidates who are afraid to be progressive and end up losing to fucking cavemen like Matt Bevin and Paul LePage, when an even halfway competent candidate who would actually give Democrats a reason to show up on Election Day should have slaughtered both of them.

Finally, the trend is definitely in Sanders' favor. Clinton has done nothing but bleed away her lead since Sanders began his campaign. He achieved a virtual tie in Iowa, a blowout in New Hampshire (where Clinton won in 2008), and a 5 point loss in Nevada (where Obama lost by 6 points in 2008). In all of these places, Clinton started out with enormous leads. She was up double digits in Iowa and Nevada within weeks of those caucuses. If he manages to keep SC and Super Tuesday close, the rest of the map is actually quite favorable (as polling trends indicate that his numbers will continue to rise as hers fall). It's a long fight.

The GOP is fracturing now. Clinton wants to board the windows and hope they don't hurt us too badly. Her message is that there's no hope of achieving any substantial progressive policy victories, so we might as well just try to avoid being rolled back. That's not an inspiring message! Sanders wants to break them. There may be no better opportunity than 2016.

If America could vote in that Marxist Socialist Muslim Kenyan Nigger Barry Soetero twice, by comfortable margins, then I am not afraid of the 'socialist' tag harming Sanders.


Election 2016 - A Black Falcon - 22nd February 2016

Yeah, DJ, FiveThirtyEight is a great site. I've visited it every so often ever since it first opened. Nate Silver, the guy who runs it, is not perfect -- he was very doubtful of Trump, for one, and Trump keeps doing well -- but his statistical analysis of the polls is some of the best out there.


Weltall Wrote:The world is ending. I am officially to the left of ABF!
That is a pretty insane thing if you look back at the early years of this site, yes... :wow:

Quote:That's rite. I'm 100% Feeling the Bern as the kids say. My wife and I have donated money multiple times and I'm going to try my hand at phonebanking.

Because, he's definitely not a one-issue candidate. He's loudest about his economic policies, and let's face it: people who are chained to the ground by systematic poverty can never hope to break free of all the other chains. It's sad, but true.

What's not true is the 'one issue' meme. Not even slightly. Here are some others you'll almost always hear come up in any given public speech:

An end to the War on Drugs (and a reminder that it disproportionately targets minority populations)
Removal of cannabis from the controlled substance schedule list + decriminalization
An end to private prisons (and a reminder that we have a higher prison population than any other country on Earth)
Amnesty + a path to citizenship
Strong support for efforts to battle climate change
Champions alternative energy sources (often solar)
An end to police brutality
Demilitarizing police forces
Unconditional support for a woman's right to choose to have an abortion
Insists that health care is a fundamental human right
As is college education
Proponent for campaign finance reform, of public funding for elections, and the abolishment of Citizens United
The restoration of the Voting Rights Act
Supports measures to end discrimination against LGBTQ people in schools, workplaces and in the public sector
Abolish the death penalty
Against police action use of military force, favors military intervention only as a part of an international coalition
Against the War on Terror and unilateral military operations
Against free trade agreements of any kind
Against pervasive government surveillance programs
Against Patriot Act
Strong proponent of Social Security expansion
Proponent of major infrastructure investments in transportation, energy and other sectors
Proponent of net neutrality
But if you watch or listen to him talk, in any debate, speech, etc, his obsessive focus on banking is extremely clear. Almost everything turns back to the banks if he can come up with an excuse... and while it is important, it is not the only issue. And on most other major issues Hillary is clearly better. She has a MUCH better foreign policy platform, for one of the biggest differences; Bernie clearly just doesn't care as much about foreign policy, which is a big problem for me since I consider foreign policy very important. "I agree with Hillary, but she was wrong on Iraq in 2002" is his constant refrain on foreign policy, and reminding us of her biggest foreign policy mistake (and one done because the Bush Administration lied to her over and over on many issues, in order to get votes for something they wanted regardless of the truth; yes, I, and Bernie, did not believe Bush, but it IS true that the administration lied a lot to get that bill through.) is not enough to outweigh her much more complete, better look at America's foreign policy problems today... as she pretty much says in the debates. She also points out that Obama won in part on the Iraq thing and then chose her for State, and yes, that is also a good point for her; it shows Obama trusted her with foreign policy, despite their disagreement on Iraq.

Quote:I do not think that Clinton will fare well against Donald Trump in the general election. Imagine the nightmare of Clinton being attacked from the left and the right, except you won't have to. Donald will be able to attack her (and credibly) on issues like SuperPACs and corruption, plus her pro-Iraq War vote, all the while rallying the racists and the bigots as he has been doing all along. She has very high unfavorable ratings (which have proven to be murder in general elections), and nothing will help glue the fractured GOP back together (even if for one final presidential campaign) than the prospect of finally defeating Clinton once and for all, as she is a supremely hated figure on the right. And, independents (who are considerably larger in number than affiliates of either party) are vastly more comfortable with Sanders than Clinton. Clinton has the support of registered Democrats... a shrinking cohort that can't win an election by itself.
Clinton won't be attacked from the left in the general election, or at least, not credibly. Trump has his own Iraq War vulnerabilities too, for instance, since we now know that before it started he said some positive things about it, before turning against it later. Hillary was somewhat similar on that regard. Sure, he'll lie repeatedly to make himself look better, but he does that all the time -- and Hillary certainly won't just take it, she'll fight back. Bernie would have a harder time dealing with someone like Trump, I think. Also, I'm sure Trump will hit her on SuperPACs, but Republican SuperPACs will not sit the election out, so that'll look hypocritical. They are not supporting him one bit now, but if he gets nominated, they'll be for him.

Additionally, we know most everything the Republicans will throw at Hillary. They've been attacking her for decades now due to their obsessive hate for her and Bill, and continue to. We'll hear Benghazi, emails, etc, etc, again and again. Hillary is EVIL!, as my right-wing aunt said years ago... So, when you look at Hillary v. Republican numbers, you see real matchups. But Bernie? Republicans are being very careful to not say much of anything against him. This results in good numbers for him in Bernie v. Republicans polls, since he's not being attacked on the things that the Republicans will hit him on if he's nominated. "Bernie will raise your taxes massively!" "Bernie honeymooned in the Soviet Union!" "Bernie calls himself a socialist!" Etc. Once those attacks get out there Bernie's numbers tank, but Hillary can't attack him for the things the Republicans will, she needs his voters in November! And the Republicans won't attack him now, they badly want the easier matchup. Bernie can't win, nationally, in November. It'd be a blowout loss for the Democrats, and especially for the Supreme Court, we NEED this win.

Quote:Furthermore, Clinton depresses voter turnout. It's been the case in each primary so far. Sanders set an all-time record for New Hampshire votes received, even though turnout was down something like 30% from 2008. Clearly, low turnout wasn't his fault. Her message is not inspiring, and what's worse, her campaign is simply dirty as fuck. She's personally been spreading false memes about Sanders, and she's having surrogates, famed civil rights icons, slandering Bernie Sanders (how about John Lewis trying to imply that Bernie Sanders wasn't involved in the Civil Rights marches!?).
None of this is true. For turnout, Bernie was hoping for better turnout than we have been seeing so far. This is why he's lost two of the three states so far. He won New Hampshire because demographically it is one of his best states, and he was the well-known longtime senator and congressman from the next state over, and also did well in Iowa, another one of his best states demographically (very white, decent education level in the Democratic voting base), but he needed Nevada to show that he could expand his base beyond that, but instead we saw Hillary's broader appeal won the day, thankfully. I'd say that Hillary and Bernie are both inspiring to some people, but not to others. Hillary is particularly inspiring to 30+ women, Bernie to younger men.

As for 'dirty', both campaigns are guilty of some excesses, but Bernie's have been worse. That 'impersonating union members' thing in Nevada wasn't good, the time when his people exploited a hole and got access to Hillary's VoteBuilder database was REALLY bad, his fans have harassed people who support Hillary online, etc. That harrassment has even happened here in Maine: http://www.pressherald.com/2016/02/19/some-sanders-backers-hassle-superdelegates/ Anyway, Lewis didn't slander Bernie... he said he didn't see him, which he probably didn't. Bernie was just one face in the crowd, while Lewis was one of the top leaders of the Civil Rights movement.

Quote:And, she's corrupt. She won't release transcripts of her paid speeches to Goldman Sachs, almost 90% of her fundraising comes from wealthy donors maxing out, she takes full advantage of Citizens' United and has no interest whatsoever in solving problems of income inequality or corruption in government. The DNC has been limiting debates to deny Sanders national exposure, and has lifted bans on SuperPAC money so as to give Clinton a fundraising advantage.
She is no more corrupt than most any other politician; that is to say, sure, people give her money, but they may or may not get what they want from it. A lot of those same corporations gave Obama money, and he did some things they don't like such as the banking reform bill. It would be nice if she'd release the text of those speeches, but I'm sure we'd learn that they are quite innocuous and have nothing "corrupting" in them. But beyond that, Hillary has gone pretty far left during this campaign, you know. She's got a solid banking-reform plan, steps to improve health care, etc. Certainly some of her policy statements have been in response to Bernie, but that's why he's in this race, to move her to the left. I was quite happy when she came out against the TPP, for example...

As for Citizen's United, though, Hillary has said that she'd have a 'you must say you'd overturn Citizen's United' litmus test on Supreme Court nominees. I absolutely believe her on this because there is a LOT more money flooding from corporations into the Republican Party than the Democrats, so regardless of what you think of her so-called "corruption", it would be very much in our partys' interests to cut corporate spending on elections. It's also the right thing to do, of course.

For debates, that was an issue before Iowa, but after that the next few debates have been on weekdays, instead of only Saturday nights, and they added at least one or two more than previously scheduled. There it was the DNC, not Hillary, making those choices; Hillary actually agreed to the New Hampshire debate before Bernie, for example. He at first wanted to hold out until she agreed to a debate in New York, but she wanted one in Flint, Michigan instead, and I think that's what's going to happen. Anyway, yes, more debates would be good, I agree, but I don't blame Hillary for how few there are; that's on Debbie Wasserman-Shultz, the current DNC head.

Quote:All this runs the significant risk of alienating Sanders supporters come November, and she's screwed if that happens.
This always happens, though, and almost always the party unites. There have been instances where party infighting helped damage the party in November, such as the Democrats in 1968, but those are rare. Bernie has said he'll support the Democratic nominee, and of course Hillary would do the same if he manages to win. I'm sure she'd campaign for him, and I hope that he will for her -- that kind of thing goes a long way to heal these wounds. The Republican Party has much bigger problems on this regard right now than the Democrats do, of course, with how many people in their party hate their current front-runner and likely nominee, Donald Trump! At least most Democrats are okay with both of our candidates.

Quote:We need a candidate who will inspire voters to not just vote for a president every four years, but to replace the GOP in state houses, legislatures, governor's mansions and Congress. Bernie Sanders repeatedly maintains that it's not about him, and he can't do it alone. It's true. We need an energized, motivated base of voters. What do we have now? A Party that has basically given up all hope of ever dislodging Republicans from Congress, who puts up weak candidates who are afraid to be progressive and end up losing to fucking cavemen like Matt Bevin and Paul LePage, when an even halfway competent candidate who would actually give Democrats a reason to show up on Election Day should have slaughtered both of them.
This is definitely extremely important, and the Democratic Party's consistent failures to find answers to this problem is crippling the party. I agree with Bernie that we need to come up with a way to get people to actually come out and vote, but while he probably has made a small difference so far, I don't think his personality-focused appeal will convince people to come out and vote next year, and the year after that, and so forth. A big part of the issue there is demographic, that Republican-leaning voters are older and older people historically always vote at much higher rates. That problem is not a hurdle the party has managed to overcome yet, and I don't see Bernie actually putting in the work to get what he says is needed done, beyond talking about it repeatedly in speeches that is.

And of course, the Republicans have gerrymandered themselves into near-untouchable majorities in many statehouses and state House of Representatives delegations. No matter how strong the appeal, winning back the House this year would be an insanely difficult task due to their gerrymandered 'majority'. Our best hope is the redistricting after the 2020 election, but even then, who knows... unless we get more court cases against gerrymandering, I'm pessimistic on the Democrats' chances of winning the House, or state legislatures, in large part because of gerrymandering. It is possible and we need to try to do it, but it'll be really hard. This country badly needs fair electoral districts, not partisan ones...

Quote:Finally, the trend is definitely in Sanders' favor. Clinton has done nothing but bleed away her lead since Sanders began his campaign. He achieved a virtual tie in Iowa, a blowout in New Hampshire (where Clinton won in 2008), and a 5 point loss in Nevada (where Obama lost by 6 points in 2008). In all of these places, Clinton started out with enormous leads. She was up double digits in Iowa and Nevada within weeks of those caucuses. If he manages to keep SC and Super Tuesday close, the rest of the map is actually quite favorable (as polling trends indicate that his numbers will continue to rise as hers fall). It's a long fight.
After the Nevada win, Clinton has this campaign won; Bernie badly needed a win there to still have a chance. Next is South Carolina, where he's likely to be blown out by 20 or 30 points. There is no sign that he is closing. Then after that is Super Tuesday, a day when nine Southern states and several northern ones vote. A PPP poll of a bunch of those states from this month shows that eight Super Tuesday states, all southern, where Hillary has 20-plus point leads, probably mostly thanks to Bernie's failure to win over the black vote. Bernie may win Massachusetts on Super Tuesday, but not much else. Obama beat Hillary in '08 in part by winning those southern primaries in states with large black populations; this time they'll go to Hillary.

As for why he hasn't won black people, one part is because they like the Clintons, but more importantly, his economics-focused message is insufficient. Hillary had a very strong closing in one of the more recent debates when she said that if we fixed income inequality today then racism, sexism, other forms of discrimination, etc. would all still exist. Bernie's answer to racial discrimination is mostly economic, and minorities, blacks especially, know that that won't be enough.

Quote:The GOP is fracturing now. Clinton wants to board the windows and hope they don't hurt us too badly. Her message is that there's no hope of achieving any substantial progressive policy victories, so we might as well just try to avoid being rolled back. That's not an inspiring message! Sanders wants to break them. There may be no better opportunity than 2016.
He has no plan to break them, no plan to win back congress beyond "people will come out to vote because I say so", but so far that isn't happening at the levels he needs. In general, Clinton is looking at political reality as it exists, while Bernie is not. As some press person said, it's hard for Hillary to beat Bernie when she is bound by actual political reality, while he is not. She says things that actually can be done, while he says impossible things that sound good but won't happen.

Quote:If America could vote in that Marxist Socialist Muslim Kenyan Nigger Barry Soetero twice, by comfortable margins, then I am not afraid of the 'socialist' tag harming Sanders.
You should be -- it really is true that in a recent poll "socialist" ranked below "atheist", "black", "muslim", "jewish", etc -- it was the only word polled that failed to get 50% support for "would you elect a president who was this?". Maybe Bernie could turn that around, and it'd be great if it did because America would be better off if we were more like Sweden or Denmark, but it is an issue.


Election 2016 - A Black Falcon - 24th February 2016

Here's the poll I was talking about:

[Image: 6bdstjdogu2cb2zu35rrmw.png]


Election 2016 - Dark Jaguar - 24th February 2016

ABF, you need to do the thing we did, completely upturn your entire world view. Come on, it's fun.


Election 2016 - Dark Jaguar - 25th February 2016

Clinton now has the Morgan Freeman narrating her ads. Sanders is doomed.


Election 2016 - A Black Falcon - 25th February 2016

Dark Jaguar Wrote:ABF, you need to do the thing we did, completely upturn your entire world view. Come on, it's fun.
But I don't want to become an evangelical conservative! That doesn't sound like much fun... :)


Election 2016 - Dark Jaguar - 27th February 2016

I just mean you need to seriously consider examining WHY you are so loyal to the democratic party. You may well end up voting democrat anyway (we sure will), but maybe you don't need to give them your loyalty? Maybe they've got a lot of problems, and not just imaginary "they aren't tough enough" problems but real ideological problems that are contributing to systemic issues in society. Take some time to really compare it to progressive parties in other countries and ask yourself why our so-called "progressive party" doesn't seem to measure up. It's okay to push them a bit, to push for a candidate that reminds the party of what it supposedly stands for.

No, I don't think you need to seriously consider joining the republicans. :D Well, maybe take a good long look at WHY they think the way they do. When you realize that deep down, they actually DO believe in authoritarian moral codes, that all morality stems from authority, and that earthly troubles like starving to death are minor compared to the glories of the afterlife earned by living according to that moral code (and they want to teach people this), THEN you'll see. You'll see they aren't lying, they aren't secretly trying to hurt women, they just don't CARE that it hurts women because it's the right thing to do. Why does this even matter? Well, only because it shows that a lot of the tactics people use to argue with them just don't work. Point out all the terrible things you like, and they'll just smile knowingly, thinking but not saying "this poor fool, so concerned with worldly troubles, just needs to learn to think of eternity". This is why they don't seem to have any empathy.


Election 2016 - Weltall - 27th February 2016

I was a conservative Republican Christian in large part because it was what I was taught was right, from a very early age. I never felt like I had any reason to question these things, and even if I did, it was wrong to do so. The real world taught me that just about all of it was lies. Success doesn't happen in a vacuum. Terrible things can happen that no one can possible prepare for or defend against. Morality isn't a question with a single right answer. Etc.

I see the things I used to say ten years ago and it kind of makes me sick.

If it means anything, ABF, when I realized that my political worldview had changed to the point where I felt proud to call myself a liberal, one of the first thoughts I had was wondering what kind of reaction it would get out of you.


Election 2016 - Dark Jaguar - 28th February 2016

It seems this sort of thing is happening to our whole generation. There's a good reason that the demographics for Fox News skew towards the elderly.


Election 2016 - A Black Falcon - 28th February 2016

Dark Jaguar Wrote:I just mean you need to seriously consider examining WHY you are so loyal to the democratic party.
Well, once I form a strong opinion on something, I very rarely change it... I do sometimes try something I hadn't before and like it, but disliking something I once loved? Not sure if I can think of any examples of that, in memory.

Quote: You may well end up voting democrat anyway (we sure will), but maybe you don't need to give them your loyalty? Maybe they've got a lot of problems, and not just imaginary "they aren't tough enough" problems but real ideological problems that are contributing to systemic issues in society. Take some time to really compare it to progressive parties in other countries and ask yourself why our so-called "progressive party" doesn't seem to measure up. It's okay to push them a bit, to push for a candidate that reminds the party of what it supposedly stands for.
You are right that the Democratic Party is much less left-wing than the left parties in most European nations, but this country is more conservative in a lot of ways than most of Europe is, so that is understandable. Considering America's electorate, I think the Democratic Party mostly does a good job policy-wise, or at least they do now and in recent decades. Yes, they are lots of things about the party I wish were more liberal (most obviously, the failure to do enough about climate change is terrible), but I do like and care about the party, so I think the best way to accomplish that is by pushing for better Democrats, not blowing up the system.

On a somewhat related note, it is true that Democratic Party insiders and party supporters prefer Hillary, while people who are less tied to the party and more to ideology prefer Bernie. I'm more in the former camp, myself.

Quote:No, I don't think you need to seriously consider joining the republicans. :D Well, maybe take a good long look at WHY they think the way they do. When you realize that deep down, they actually DO believe in authoritarian moral codes, that all morality stems from authority, and that earthly troubles like starving to death are minor compared to the glories of the afterlife earned by living according to that moral code (and they want to teach people this), THEN you'll see. You'll see they aren't lying, they aren't secretly trying to hurt women, they just don't CARE that it hurts women because it's the right thing to do. Why does this even matter? Well, only because it shows that a lot of the tactics people use to argue with them just don't work. Point out all the terrible things you like, and they'll just smile knowingly, thinking but not saying "this poor fool, so concerned with worldly troubles, just needs to learn to think of eternity". This is why they don't seem to have any empathy.
This is quite interesting. What you're saying here sounds exactly like medieval European explanations for why society should stay in order, with the nobility on top and peasants below -- if you rock the boat you challenge the fate of your soul, which matters more than your earthly suffering. So it's a familiar concept to me, though not so much as applied to modern politics...

However, the Republicans do not believe in an ordered society like medieval theologians did -- they believe that you can make yourself great by making a lot of money. In the middle ages merchants were not thought highly of; the divine status of nobility did not usually just come with a fortune, but through blood.

That said, for an issue like abortion or gay rights I can absolutely see what you're talking about applying. But for taxes or something? "The rich should pay less taxes and the poor more", how does that fit with the 'stay in your place' mantra... I don't quite see it. Thinking about it though, this is what was behind that 'What is the matter with Kansas' book and concept, of people voting for social issues despite it being to their economic detriment. Well, Trump is showing that for at least some of them, just the racism without much of anything else clear (since his positions have changed constantly) is good enough for them... sad stuff.

Weltall Wrote:I was a conservative Republican Christian in large part because it was what I was taught was right, from a very early age. I never felt like I had any reason to question these things, and even if I did, it was wrong to do so. The real world taught me that just about all of it was lies. Success doesn't happen in a vacuum. Terrible things can happen that no one can possible prepare for or defend against. Morality isn't a question with a single right answer. Etc.

While I was taught to question a lot of things. Of course even on top of that I always wanted, and want, to know the 'why' behind things, this is surely a big part of it, but I certainly was taught that too, both at home and in church (Unitarian Universalist, aka the most liberal mainstream religion; went just about every week through high school, and though I haven't attended any church regularly since then, I go to the Christmas Eve service each year. A few other people who were also in our group are often there too, which is nice. But anyway.).

Quote:I see the things I used to say ten years ago and it kind of makes me sick.

If it means anything, ABF, when I realized that my political worldview had changed to the point where I felt proud to call myself a liberal, one of the first thoughts I had was wondering what kind of reaction it would get out of you.
Heh... that's nice. I don't remember the specifics of much of our arguments (I could look up a lot of it, though, in the site's old threads...), though I certainly remember having them. I probably remember my constant arguments with OB1 about videogames more... when I think of '00s TC that's the first thing I think of. :p As for political debates though, I'm sure if I looked back I'd see some things I disagree with now, but I'd probably still agree with most of it. Hopefully that's because I was right, not just because it's hard for me to change my mind on things that it's made up about. :) ... And with that, you see my usual thing that I'm always my own worst critic and can't help but always be hard on myself even if someone says something positive about me. Ah well...

In general of course do like debating things on the internet, yes... though that said, much less about politics online in recent years than, say, back on TC back then; arguments on the internet go badly enough when you're 'just' discussing videogames, much less politics...


Election 2016 - Dark Jaguar - 29th February 2016

Climate change is the single most important issue facing our species (and several others). All others, from racism to economic inequality, pale in comparison to an extinction level event. That said, they do all tie into each other. Climate change is going to affect the poor and those otherwise oppressed by systemic prejudice long before it affects the wealthy and privileged. Look at the results of hurricane Katrina.

That said, I've heard surprisingly little from both Hillary and Sanders on climate change. They've both mentioned it, but it hasn't been a major pillar for either campaign. That said, the important question I have is which one of them is more likely to actually take action regarding it? In Obama's defense, late in his second term he's finally done something that might maybe possibly could help, sometime down the road. Scalia's death is very likely a good thing in the sense that the supreme court had taken the unprecedented step of basically telling a lower court to rule on a case that hadn't even been made yet. So, that action has probably stopped in it's tracks. I just hope Obama doesn't "meet the Republicans half way" and agree to nominate a republican just to keep them happy.

To be fair though, when the shoe was on the other foot, yes, the democrats did the EXACT same stalling tactic with Bush Jr.'s nominee.


Election 2016 - Weltall - 29th February 2016

A Black Falcon Wrote:You are right that the Democratic Party is much less left-wing than the left parties in most European nations, but this country is more conservative in a lot of ways than most of Europe is, so that is understandable. Considering America's electorate, I think the Democratic Party mostly does a good job policy-wise, or at least they do now and in recent decades. Yes, they are lots of things about the party I wish were more liberal (most obviously, the failure to do enough about climate change is terrible), but I do like and care about the party, so I think the best way to accomplish that is by pushing for better Democrats, not blowing up the system.

I don't really think we're as conservative as most people believe we are. This is a perception which is largely driven by the fact that conservatives have dominated the media (in spite of their protestations to the contrary), and they are just generally louder and more inspired to vote. I would love to have universal voter registration and mail-in voting. That would wipe out whatever of the Republican Party is left after they get through destroying themselves.

I can't like or care about the Party because it sucks, frankly. With the power, money and influence the party has, there's no excuse for allowing downticket elections to go uncontested. The problem with the Dems is that, after the poundings the party took at the hands of Nixon and Reagan, they're timid. They're afraid to fight directly, and have resorted to "we're not as bad as the GOP" as the core of its message. It's true, but it's both uninspiring and their pusillanimity undermines the message anyhow. Obama got rolled by the GOP until he finally figured out that there was no point in negotiations, that he could accomplish great things if he used the powers available to him and started acting unilaterally.

Because, progressive ideas are actually pretty popular.


Quote:This is quite interesting. What you're saying here sounds exactly like medieval European explanations for why society should stay in order, with the nobility on top and peasants below -- if you rock the boat you challenge the fate of your soul, which matters more than your earthly suffering. So it's a familiar concept to me, though not so much as applied to modern politics...

However, the Republicans do not believe in an ordered society like medieval theologians did -- they believe that you can make yourself great by making a lot of money. In the middle ages merchants were not thought highly of; the divine status of nobility did not usually just come with a fortune, but through blood.

It depends on which Republicans, though. It's a party divided, roughly, between corporatists and evangelicals. They have their differences, but there's enough overlap to have, at least, kept the coalition a threat to the country. The Koch Bros. arm of the party couldn't care less about Christianity or wedding cakes for gay couples or replacing established scientific theory with creationist pudding in school textbooks, and the Family Research Council arm of the party couldn't care less about tax breaks for 'job creators' and slashing entitlements. But, in between, you have your Ted Cruz types who take billionaire donations while promising a return to the good ol' days of the Spanish Inquisition, carrying a cross while ignoring basically everything his savior was alleged to say about the poor and downtrodden. The Tea Party is, largely, a microcosm of this weird and delusional cooperation.

Quote:Heh... that's nice. I don't remember the specifics of much of our arguments (I could look up a lot of it, though, in the site's old threads...), though I certainly remember having them. I probably remember my constant arguments with OB1 about videogames more... when I think of '00s TC that's the first thing I think of. :p As for political debates though, I'm sure if I looked back I'd see some things I disagree with now, but I'd probably still agree with most of it. Hopefully that's because I was right, not just because it's hard for me to change my mind on things that it's made up about. :) ... And with that, you see my usual thing that I'm always my own worst critic and can't help but always be hard on myself even if someone says something positive about me. Ah well...

I think now, in large part, it's because you were right. We argued about gay marriage, the Iraq war, probably guns, certainly religious freedom. There probably isn't a single position I had then that I retain today.

Dark Jaguar Wrote:That said, I've heard surprisingly little from both Hillary and Sanders on climate change. They've both mentioned it, but it hasn't been a major pillar for either campaign. That said, the important question I have is which one of them is more likely to actually take action regarding it?


Bill McKibben, the guy who introduced the concept of climate change into the public consciousness, is a huge Sanders backer. "Bernie's been in the forefront of all the crucial environmental fights of recent years", is a quote I mined from the back of Outsider in the White House.