11th November 2020, 9:00 AM
Quote:On this issue, here's the big question: there are two forces at work here, which is stronger?On the one hand, the ongoing COVID-19 tragedy boosted turnout among Democrats and turned more moderates against Trump. It helped us defeat him for sure, and seeing how close the election was in the states that matter the most, we needed all the help we can get.On the other hand, due to COVID, Democrats did almost no door-to-door campaiging and GOTV (get out the vote) operations; instead, GOTV was mostly phone and internet-based, which are much less effective. It is hard to get many more Dem-leaning constituencies to vote, such as minorities, immigrants, etc; without GOTV efforts, even with how horrible Trump is some probably did not vote who would have in a normal year. I really do think that the lack of GOTV hurt Democrats nationwide.The question is, which of these forces is the stronger one? Did we only win because of COVID, did it help us, or was is kind of a wash in the end as the loss of GOTV hurt us as much as the Trump administration's disastrous pandemic response hurt? I suspect the answer is that it helped more than it hurt, but I'm sure there will be analysies of this question in the future.If a pandemic results in greater turnout than any GOTV efforts have ever managed, maybe the Democrats' GOTV efforts weren't really very good to start with. I believe AOC is spot on, Democrats have a tendency to treat internet outreach in particular as unimportant, but the GOP does not, and it's key to their high turnout. It's way cheaper and easier to saturate. Republicans don't send outreachers to pound the pavement. They stage big rallies and flood the internet with ads and disinformation.
I feel 100% confident Joe Biden won because of COVID. Donald Trump with his roaring economy and stock market would have easily won re-election, had COVID not been a major disruptive factor. It was a referendum on Donald Trump in particular, not about Republicans in general. Hence, the downballot results. Anyone who chooses to interpret this as Americans wanting to go back to centrist Democrat politics, rather than Americans being tired of a particular incompetent moron, are setting us all up for more heartbreak. We need not replicate the specific tactics of the Republican Party, but they are wizards at playing the long game and finding ways (ethical or not) of overcoming a natural electoral disadvantage. Democrats need to study how they do this and adapt their methods in such a way that is not destructive and stupid.
YOU CANNOT HIDE FOREVER
WE STAND AT THE DOOR
WE STAND AT THE DOOR