27th December 2019, 9:46 PM
I know I've said it over and over, but the "only Bernie can win" narrative you people have makes absolutely no sense whatsoever because it's not backed up by any facts. There is, unfortunately, no reason to believe that moving to the left makes it easier to win elections in this country. Would it be nice if Bernie could easily win? Sure! But he can't; quite the opposite, I am just as sure now as I was in 2016 that Bernie has a tougher path to victory than any of our other major candidates, either currently running or withdrawn. The US and UK are different -- look at how in our first election after the 2016 debacles in both nations (Brexit, Trump) the Democrats won big here in 2018, while in the UK the Conservatives won big this year -- but even so, Jeremy Corbyn's failure, running as a quite far left candidate, is at least a little bit like how I think a Sanders campaign would go. He'd have a chance at victory, but with someone that far left it would be MUCH harder than with someone with even somewhat more conventional views. Republicans never attack Bernie because they know he'd be a good target, but if he somehow was nominated, and it's not happening, he would be absolutely hammered by attack ads, and any tiny boost he'd get on the far left would be vastly dwarfed by the number of people in the center turned off by Bernie's anti-capitalist socialism. You do not win in this country by targeting the left alone, that is not enough people! Motivate a small minority while alienating most everyone else and you lose by a lot.
Of course, you never know - Trump seemed to have a tough path to victory, before he managed to thread a needle and "win", after all - but I think Bernie would have an even tougher path that Trump did. If we want a second term, there's no one better to nominate than Bernie.
So no, if we want to have any kind of reform soon, and we should something which can happen is needed and that's what Warren has admitted is needed. Grand plans are fantastic, we need them, and we need bold plans because if you're too cautious you give up on any chance of big things happening even when they are needed, but health care? Medicare for All would be a major, MAJOR fight, and we can only win it with a sizable Senate majority, I think. And with the way the states are laid out, we're not likely to get one.
I would like to think that someday (probably well after it is way too late) even Republicans will admit that major climate change legislation and action is required, but a health care bill like this isn't something I see them changing their minds on anytime soon...
So yeah, the Warren plan there is good and important. Mitch McConnell will not be passing Medicare for All; we need things that can be done around the Senate.
Of course, you never know - Trump seemed to have a tough path to victory, before he managed to thread a needle and "win", after all - but I think Bernie would have an even tougher path that Trump did. If we want a second term, there's no one better to nominate than Bernie.
(23rd December 2019, 6:57 PM)Dark Jaguar Wrote:What Warren is doing is recognizing political reality, which is an unfortunate but good thing. The chances of this Senate passing Medicare for All is near zero! If Mitch McConnell remains Senate Majority Leader, I'd put the chances somewhere below zero for sure, and if a miracle occurs and we actually manage to take the Senate it'd still be nearly impossible; even if we, say, get rid of the filibuster, no way would every Democrat agree on Medicare for All!(21st December 2019, 5:11 PM)Weltall Wrote: Trump is going to be re-elected if Bernie Sanders isn't the nominee.
You've summed up ABF and my own argument for the last I dunno, 5 pages of this thing, at least my contention.
Warren made a big misstep in rolling back on her Medicare for All plan just recently, and she's talking about that tired talking point, "choice", again. You know, the lie. It's disappointing, and I think whoever's advising Warren is doing her a disservice. So, Sanders it is for me.
So no, if we want to have any kind of reform soon, and we should something which can happen is needed and that's what Warren has admitted is needed. Grand plans are fantastic, we need them, and we need bold plans because if you're too cautious you give up on any chance of big things happening even when they are needed, but health care? Medicare for All would be a major, MAJOR fight, and we can only win it with a sizable Senate majority, I think. And with the way the states are laid out, we're not likely to get one.
I would like to think that someday (probably well after it is way too late) even Republicans will admit that major climate change legislation and action is required, but a health care bill like this isn't something I see them changing their minds on anytime soon...
So yeah, the Warren plan there is good and important. Mitch McConnell will not be passing Medicare for All; we need things that can be done around the Senate.