5th October 2019, 8:12 PM
Bernie's numbers are flat. Polling shows that, apparently, under 1% of 2016 Clinton supporters are considering Bernie this time around, and he's not holding everyone who supported him then either, not by a longshot. He's stuck at 15%, max, and is not gaining. Sure he has money, but is that money leading to real gains? And then on top of that, he's the oldest candidate in the race and just had a heart attack...
On the subject of money though, apparently Andrew Yang raised $10 million last quarter, and... WHY? What do people see in him? I really don't get it... I know his polling is low, but he's above a lot of what I would have thought to be more serious candidates and continues to raise money. I don't have a strong opinion on universal basic income but am pretty skeptical about its prospects and if it'd work (and about his plan, too), but still, that's a lot of money...
As for Republican attempts to paper this over, of course they will try but so far it is not working.
Poling also shows Trump far behind where he was in this point in 2015 -- PPP said recently that at this point in 2015 Trump-Hillary Clinton polls showed them tied at 44%, while now Trump is behind a generic Democrat by like 12%. That Trump's base is sticking whit him is horrible for the future of his democracy, but unless the attempts to rig and subvert the vote work, I don't think this is going to be 2016 again... but that is a huge "unless" and thanks to our insanely awful electoral college system we need to win by a LOT to have any shot at victory, so we'll see.
So yeah, unhinged behavior is bad, and Republican attempts to cover it over and pretend that his criminal and impeachable offenses are nothing are worse, but his actions have gotten so bad that he's paying a price for it anyway. Thank goodness. Removal is still EXTREMELY unlikely, but at this rate you never know...
On the subject of money though, apparently Andrew Yang raised $10 million last quarter, and... WHY? What do people see in him? I really don't get it... I know his polling is low, but he's above a lot of what I would have thought to be more serious candidates and continues to raise money. I don't have a strong opinion on universal basic income but am pretty skeptical about its prospects and if it'd work (and about his plan, too), but still, that's a lot of money...
(5th October 2019, 9:27 AM)Sacred Jellybean Wrote: Are you sure about Trump's poll numbers being down? I checked fivethirtyeight and they're pretty much where they've always been: 53.7 disapprove, and 41.6 approve. No one has budged, given the latest news. And Republicans are already discussing a blitz strategy to convince voters that this is just Democrats still bitter over the 2016 loss and it's a "nothing-burger".You're right that his base is sticking with him, I'm probably wrong on that point, but polling is showing that support for impeachment and removal are both up and that is very important -- some people (primarily independents, and not diehard Trumper Republicans) have budged, in favor of wanting further investigation of his actions.
As for Republican attempts to paper this over, of course they will try but so far it is not working.
Quote:Nothing has changed, even with Trump calling on China to help him out. It's unbelievable. He's becoming more and more brazen, precisely because he knows he can get away with it. Every time he does something more outrageous and objectively unethical, I wonder if we've reached the breaking point, but... nope.That he has gotten so brazen, probably partially because mentally he's falling apart and partially because he knows his base will let him get away with anything, is good as far as impeachment goes -- it has finally made impeachment possible, where previously it probably wasn't going to happen. And at least some people are noticing how bad his behavior is, as the increase in support for impeachment shows.
Luckily, depending on the poll, a lot of Americans think he should be impeached. It looks like it can be as high as 46.5% (approve) vs. 44.8% (disapprove), based on fivethirtyeight's numbers. Still, there are caveats with this, in that polls can use different phrasing on impeachment. Still, it at least paints a fuzzy picture of it.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-...ent-trump/
Poling also shows Trump far behind where he was in this point in 2015 -- PPP said recently that at this point in 2015 Trump-Hillary Clinton polls showed them tied at 44%, while now Trump is behind a generic Democrat by like 12%. That Trump's base is sticking whit him is horrible for the future of his democracy, but unless the attempts to rig and subvert the vote work, I don't think this is going to be 2016 again... but that is a huge "unless" and thanks to our insanely awful electoral college system we need to win by a LOT to have any shot at victory, so we'll see.
So yeah, unhinged behavior is bad, and Republican attempts to cover it over and pretend that his criminal and impeachable offenses are nothing are worse, but his actions have gotten so bad that he's paying a price for it anyway. Thank goodness. Removal is still EXTREMELY unlikely, but at this rate you never know...