28th June 2018, 9:31 PM
(This post was last modified: 29th June 2018, 6:42 PM by A Black Falcon.)
... and then Justice Kennedy retired and the court situation got a whole lot worse. There have been rumors of Kennedy retiring for at least a year now, and while he didn't do it last year he did this year. A lot of people are really upset about this, because this means the court is probably lost to the left for decades, and that is probably true. Court decisions will probably be a major drag against needed change for a long time.
However, that already was true! Kennedy usually votes with the right, after all. Swing justice Anthony Kennedy is rarely a swing justice, as was seen in this term, where he decided with the conservatives on pretty much every issue, making for a horrendous term filled with really bad decisions. I have always thought that the "swing justice Kennedy" thing was overhyped, as outside of gay rights he's not much of a swing justice, he's pretty much just a conservative. Now, gay rights is a very important issue and it could be at threat here, as could abortion to name the other most important issue Kennedy voted for but a replacement will probably want to ban, but most of the time? Kennedy voted the same way that any replacement of Trump's will.
So yeah, it's really bad, but it has been for a while. Looking back, the key moments for getting us this right-wing court were the retirement that brought Clarence Thomas to the court in 1991, when longtime left-wing justice Thurgood Marshall retired during the Bush I administration, flipping the court, and the retirement that solidified the conservative majority by making not-very-swingey Kennedy the centermost justice of the majority in 2004, when Sandra Day O'Connor, who by the way is still alive and was the most moderate of the conservatives by a good margin, retired and was replaced with the very-far-right Justice Alito. This retirement may end up being more consequential than the O'Connor retirement, or it may not, but I definitely don't think it will match the impact of Marshall being replaced by Thomas... Kennedy was too far right on most issues for him being replaced by someone even farther right to have that kind of impact.
That said, I am not downplaying how bad this is for a few issues, most notably abortion. It's really bad for that. But outside of social issues this will just continue on the trend we saw with the court this year, probably.
However, that already was true! Kennedy usually votes with the right, after all. Swing justice Anthony Kennedy is rarely a swing justice, as was seen in this term, where he decided with the conservatives on pretty much every issue, making for a horrendous term filled with really bad decisions. I have always thought that the "swing justice Kennedy" thing was overhyped, as outside of gay rights he's not much of a swing justice, he's pretty much just a conservative. Now, gay rights is a very important issue and it could be at threat here, as could abortion to name the other most important issue Kennedy voted for but a replacement will probably want to ban, but most of the time? Kennedy voted the same way that any replacement of Trump's will.
So yeah, it's really bad, but it has been for a while. Looking back, the key moments for getting us this right-wing court were the retirement that brought Clarence Thomas to the court in 1991, when longtime left-wing justice Thurgood Marshall retired during the Bush I administration, flipping the court, and the retirement that solidified the conservative majority by making not-very-swingey Kennedy the centermost justice of the majority in 2004, when Sandra Day O'Connor, who by the way is still alive and was the most moderate of the conservatives by a good margin, retired and was replaced with the very-far-right Justice Alito. This retirement may end up being more consequential than the O'Connor retirement, or it may not, but I definitely don't think it will match the impact of Marshall being replaced by Thomas... Kennedy was too far right on most issues for him being replaced by someone even farther right to have that kind of impact.
That said, I am not downplaying how bad this is for a few issues, most notably abortion. It's really bad for that. But outside of social issues this will just continue on the trend we saw with the court this year, probably.