9th November 2016, 7:15 PM
The media has a lot to attone for with this. They're the ones that decided Trump needed a free podium to speak from for YEARS now, every single time Trump said "hey, I got something to say", some news network would hand him a microphone, never mind that he's never once shown that his opinion has ANY worth whatsoever. Nah, they'll let him speak his mind the NIGHT Obama won that first term to stain the whole thing with the beginnings of the Birther movement.
I really do think you're wrong about Bernie. There were a disturbingly large number of people who, when polled at the time, said they would "either vote for Trump or Bernie". Nate Silver himself is reconsidering his view on Bernie's chances in light of failed predictions for this election. Namely, the policies did NOT matter to the contingent of voters who came out in force. What mattered, and what they TOLD us mattered over and over again above all else, was that Trump was perceived to be an "outsider" who promised to help save rural America (which, well, has NOT recovered from the recession the same way cities have, and really are in a lot of trouble). Bernie, even though he's the polar opposite of Trump as far as policy, was viewed in the same terms. I PERSONALLY know people who, after Bernie lost the nomination, instantly went for Trump (I'm not particularly close to these people, but I have personal knowledge they exist). Due to a general failing to poll rural areas, we didn't see this election as one that would really be THIS close. Biden might actually have won by virtue of not being as "tainted" as Hillary was perceived to be, but it would still have been close. What was needed more than anything else, as is becoming crystal clear, was someone with both charisma and a genuine authenticity. Hillary "I ain't no ways tired" Clinton is NOT her authentic self. Part of that is a history that forced her to reinvent herself at every turn, spurned on in a large part due to institutionalized sexism, but keeping up that facade with the entire country watching, well, people saw right through it and rather than consider WHY she might be putting on all these faces, they dismissed her as ingenuine. Trump, if anything can be said about him, is genuine Trump (which is to say, terrible). Bernie also had that going for him. I doubt enough polling data is going to come along to make it definitive, but I'm pretty convinced that a statistically significant number of those who mobilized for Trump would have split off to vote for Bernie had he run, based on their own words if nothing else.
As it stands, Clinton is through. The democratic party is never going to give her another chance at this. She's also got a completely wrong reputation regarding the Benghazi over her head, so she may never get near the white house again for that matter. She'll either focus on a senator's career or focus on her charity (the latter meaning undoing the separation she and Bill had to do recently for this election).
Trump, well, in my lifetime when a party wins the presidency, they seem to always fully support them as their candidate of choice to get that second term (under the infallible "they won one time, so they can win again" logic, which, well, has been pretty true for the last 3 presidents). However, his own party hates him so much that I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't back him even as the incumbent in four years.
I really do think you're wrong about Bernie. There were a disturbingly large number of people who, when polled at the time, said they would "either vote for Trump or Bernie". Nate Silver himself is reconsidering his view on Bernie's chances in light of failed predictions for this election. Namely, the policies did NOT matter to the contingent of voters who came out in force. What mattered, and what they TOLD us mattered over and over again above all else, was that Trump was perceived to be an "outsider" who promised to help save rural America (which, well, has NOT recovered from the recession the same way cities have, and really are in a lot of trouble). Bernie, even though he's the polar opposite of Trump as far as policy, was viewed in the same terms. I PERSONALLY know people who, after Bernie lost the nomination, instantly went for Trump (I'm not particularly close to these people, but I have personal knowledge they exist). Due to a general failing to poll rural areas, we didn't see this election as one that would really be THIS close. Biden might actually have won by virtue of not being as "tainted" as Hillary was perceived to be, but it would still have been close. What was needed more than anything else, as is becoming crystal clear, was someone with both charisma and a genuine authenticity. Hillary "I ain't no ways tired" Clinton is NOT her authentic self. Part of that is a history that forced her to reinvent herself at every turn, spurned on in a large part due to institutionalized sexism, but keeping up that facade with the entire country watching, well, people saw right through it and rather than consider WHY she might be putting on all these faces, they dismissed her as ingenuine. Trump, if anything can be said about him, is genuine Trump (which is to say, terrible). Bernie also had that going for him. I doubt enough polling data is going to come along to make it definitive, but I'm pretty convinced that a statistically significant number of those who mobilized for Trump would have split off to vote for Bernie had he run, based on their own words if nothing else.
As it stands, Clinton is through. The democratic party is never going to give her another chance at this. She's also got a completely wrong reputation regarding the Benghazi over her head, so she may never get near the white house again for that matter. She'll either focus on a senator's career or focus on her charity (the latter meaning undoing the separation she and Bill had to do recently for this election).
Trump, well, in my lifetime when a party wins the presidency, they seem to always fully support them as their candidate of choice to get that second term (under the infallible "they won one time, so they can win again" logic, which, well, has been pretty true for the last 3 presidents). However, his own party hates him so much that I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't back him even as the incumbent in four years.
"On two occasions, I have been asked [by members of Parliament], 'Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?' I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question." ~ Charles Babbage (1791-1871)