5th June 2020, 12:41 PM
If the election happened right now, Biden would blow Trump out. The problem is that independent voters have a short-term memory (or are quick to forgive Trump; every time his approval rating drops to the lower 40s, it eventually rises back up to the upper 40s arbitrarily). We still have around five months until the election, and it's going to be a long five months. Biden's lead right now is not insignificant, but in the swing states, which are what really matter, he leads by a razor thin margin (and is even trailing Trump in Pennsylvania). He is leading ever so slightly in Florida, which is significant, but again, anything and everything can change in the next five months. I feel like if the 2016 October surprise, the Access Hollywood video, had been released in the first week of November instead, it might have ended all hope for Trump. Instead, time passed, people who were once enraged stopped caring, and Comey reopened the investigation into Hillary Clinton, which may have cost her in terms of voter enthusiasm and by extension turnout, particularly in the swing states.
I hate that the electoral college could very well cost us another election. Trump's base is very empowered, unswayed by reason, evidence, logic, or decency, and they have great influence in the rust belt.
Also, hi, haven't posted here in almost eight years.
I hate that the electoral college could very well cost us another election. Trump's base is very empowered, unswayed by reason, evidence, logic, or decency, and they have great influence in the rust belt.
Also, hi, haven't posted here in almost eight years.