18th July 2018, 8:17 AM
Dark Jaguar Wrote:We SHOULD be shocked, its an extremely treasonous thing Trump just did, but well, you're absolutely right. This is par for the course for Trump, and entirely predictable. My outrage is also entirely predictable. As I've said before, this will be the first presidency that ages the entire nation by 20 years rather than the president themselves.It's predictable, but that outrage is still important! We can't let him get away with this just because it's predictable...
Quote:In any case, you're missing one key thing. That democractic "concession" to secure that victory in those red states? It's not going to work. At all. They'll lose their reelection bid, and this stunt is just going to be a stain on the rest of their lives.No, most of them are going to win. Of the Senate races this year, Dems have to win with Democratic incumbents in 10 states Trump won, and are trying some offense in four states held by Republican Senators, three of which are states Trump won and one Hillary won. That last one is Nevada, the Dems' best pickup opportunity. Things are also looking pretty good for a pickup in Arizona. Then Tennesee and, if things go crazy well (this is very unlikely and I do not think it will happen), Texas are at least vaguely competitive. Of those ten states Dems are defending, from what little polling there is so far, maybe seven or so currently are states where the Democratic incumbent is ahead. The three most in danger of flipping are North Dakota, Indiana, and Florida, with Missouri also close. Those Dems are definitely not all going to lose, and most are going to win. If things go really well we could even gain in the Senate, though I do think that's unlikely; it'd be a pretty good day if we only lose one overall...
With a Hillary Presidency we probably WOULD be looking at a lot of losses in this Senate group, because conservatives would be energized to stop her, but thanks to how badly the Trump presidency is going in a lot of ways the national mood should help us hold on to a lot more of them than otherwise would have happened.