26th February 2013, 7:39 PM
Yeah, the example of Facebook ("social") games really is a good one. Just a few years ago Zynga was going to take over the industry, but now they are struggling and people are jumping ship, and investors have moved on to bashing console game publishers for not being in on the smartphone gaming thing, instead of the social game thing. Will smartphone/tablet gaming prove lasting, though? Is there enough of a market there actually willing to spend money on games to support any kind of development infrastructure? So far, the signs are certainly iffy at best. Most phone games don't make money, they have to sell for either $1 or free to be successful and then you have to monetize them somehow through cash shops, etc... but is this stuff going to last, or is it going to fade, like all the other casual-focused game formats have? I'm sure it will continue to be important, but the investors', and casual medias', focus on "phones and tablets are the future!" definitely ignores the history of how these things go.
And meanwhile, there is a proven base of some number of millions of people who ARE willing to spend money on games. They're gamers, and they are not going to be satisfied with just phones and tablets. Are there enough of them to keep the industry going with budgets as out of control as they often are now, though? That I don't know, but I certainly do think that serious gamers are not going to say "all I need is a phone and tablet, no actual console is needed".
Now, that's where the doubters probably mention, say, Ouya, Steam Box, maybe "well streaming will take over in coming yeras", and stuff like that. But for now, most people don't have internet service good enough to allow decent streaming, so that's out, and will be for the foreseeable future. It uses up way too much data, and requires way too much bandwidth to get a decent picture quality, and internet connections on that level are either expensive or simply unavailable for most, particularly in North America.
As for TV boxes like the Steam Box or phone-to-TV things like Ouya, we'll see. Steam Box could be interesting, we'll have to see how it goes once it comes out... could be interesting. As for the phone-to-TV things though, I doubt that those will catch on big. I mean, it could happen, but I wouldn't guess it.
Finally, on another note, if Microsoft really does go through with the rumors and implement a used games ban -- ie, cd-keys or something along those lines, with each key tied to a specific account, or maybe even a specific console, as with the latest version of MS Office, which is locked to one single PC, I think that it really will hurt them. Now, Sony hasn't said clearly "we will allow used games for free and there will be no catches", but they have said that used games will be allowed in some way. I really hope that there are no catches, and that they don't implement some "but you must buy a license to play it" tricks, but you will be able to play used games on the PS4. But if the rumors about that not being allowed at all on the next Xbox are true... sure, maybe MS can get over that and be successful anyway, but I really do think that it'd hurt them with a lot of consumers. I know MS Is liable to make stupid decisions sometimes, unfortunately, but that'd be a big one... and almost all the rumors head straight towards it being true. We'll see for sure in a few months once MS says something.
And meanwhile, there is a proven base of some number of millions of people who ARE willing to spend money on games. They're gamers, and they are not going to be satisfied with just phones and tablets. Are there enough of them to keep the industry going with budgets as out of control as they often are now, though? That I don't know, but I certainly do think that serious gamers are not going to say "all I need is a phone and tablet, no actual console is needed".
Now, that's where the doubters probably mention, say, Ouya, Steam Box, maybe "well streaming will take over in coming yeras", and stuff like that. But for now, most people don't have internet service good enough to allow decent streaming, so that's out, and will be for the foreseeable future. It uses up way too much data, and requires way too much bandwidth to get a decent picture quality, and internet connections on that level are either expensive or simply unavailable for most, particularly in North America.
As for TV boxes like the Steam Box or phone-to-TV things like Ouya, we'll see. Steam Box could be interesting, we'll have to see how it goes once it comes out... could be interesting. As for the phone-to-TV things though, I doubt that those will catch on big. I mean, it could happen, but I wouldn't guess it.
Finally, on another note, if Microsoft really does go through with the rumors and implement a used games ban -- ie, cd-keys or something along those lines, with each key tied to a specific account, or maybe even a specific console, as with the latest version of MS Office, which is locked to one single PC, I think that it really will hurt them. Now, Sony hasn't said clearly "we will allow used games for free and there will be no catches", but they have said that used games will be allowed in some way. I really hope that there are no catches, and that they don't implement some "but you must buy a license to play it" tricks, but you will be able to play used games on the PS4. But if the rumors about that not being allowed at all on the next Xbox are true... sure, maybe MS can get over that and be successful anyway, but I really do think that it'd hurt them with a lot of consumers. I know MS Is liable to make stupid decisions sometimes, unfortunately, but that'd be a big one... and almost all the rumors head straight towards it being true. We'll see for sure in a few months once MS says something.
Dark Jaguar Wrote:PS4 won't have backwards compatibility to lose, so I won't be "forced" to buy the first model on some sort of time limit like I ended up doing with my PS3. Since the system is using an x86 based processor, it is essentially a PC. The only difference is the OS. Porting games should be far easier because of this, but they will still need to be ported. If Sony were smart, they'd make the PS4 OS Linux based and cash in on Steam's recent port to that OS to have a ton of games right out of the gate.True, at least this time they can't cut something they didn't include in the first place.
Quote:The other big news is that touch screen right in the middle of the controller. While Start and Select no longer exist as independent buttons, I suspect pressing the touch screen equivalents shouldn't prove too difficult compared to having a touch based d-pad and face buttons.Actually, I think that Options button replaces Start and Select, but we'll have to see; games using that touchpad in menus does seem likely.
Quote:The OTHER other big news is that the PS4 is totes linked all up on to the social metasphere, my digdoggers. Eh. I mean, yeah you can now "comment" on things on some sort of "wall" or whatever, but this still means that Sony's "social" solution lacks that basic thing Nintendo recognized, a "society". Just linking into the various walled gardens on Facebook really isn't enough. On Facebook, as everywhere else, people only ever see the people they approve of, reinforcing their own echo chambers of ideas.On a related note, I really noticed the irony about how two of the games being shown at Sony's conference were about how people can control things via connected networks (Watch Dogs, Infamous: Second Son)... in announcements for a console with a connected network that records footage of your games as you play them and allows you to upload that to the internet with the push of a button. That's pretty ironic. :)
Quote:Nintendo's solution essentially forces everyone together, which in the long run makes for a much more productive society. The social interaction on the Wii U is still doing great so far. That said, the Wii U had a TERRIBLE January. They KILLED November and December, but dropped to a level lower than has been seen since 2005 in January. Nintendo will need to pull something desperate in order to reverse that. The odd thing is going from Wii level sales all the way down to Dreamcast level in the order of one month. Normally if January lull is going to be that low, one would be able to predict it from holiday sales, but not this time.It's hard to convince many people to buy Wii Us when no games are being released for the thing, and so far this year there's been almost nothing. On that note, I think there were no Wii U releases at all in February, at least in the US. I expect Feb. to be even worse than Jan. was, sales-wise. Things should improve once Nintendo actually releases some games for it, though. Nintendo said that they were going to learn their lesson after the poor 3DS launch, but they don't seem to have, at all... once again, we're dealing with a thin first party release list, minimal third party support, and fading sales. I know that the big upcoming titles will help, but right now, they're quite a ways off, and Nintendo looks like it's wasting way too much of its yearlong lead over the competition. It's quite unfortunate. Why did Nintendo think that this time things would be different and magically they'd get good third party support THIS time, or something? They should have known that it wouldn't happen!