Official Japanese Hardware Sales: Dec 5 -12

[A Black Falcon]

If I'm not mistaken, Mario Kart has always been a second generation game, usually coming out about a year after the console launch.

True. But Nintendo doesn't need to stick to the same schedule every time, and doesn't... like how SSB was a late N64 game versus almost-launch on GC... (Or Mario Sunshine not being launch). That said, they probably won't have Mario Kart at launch... and don't really need it then. If they've got a Mario platformer (that people like more than Sunshine), all will go well. :)

Late 2006 isn't exactly just right around the corner...

Well technically Nintendo has said 'anytime in the last eight or nine months of '06', but yes, the current rumor is Thanksgiving-time in the US.