More idiot "analysts"...

[Paco]

I wish I could remember where I read it, but at the time it was on multiple game news sites. But basically the vast majority of people who bought a PS2 (from launch to the time of the article a few months ago) were newcomers.

I'll have to research this now that you said it. Very interesting if true.

This didn't surprise me, most of the people who bought a SNES were newcomers. I agree that ATLEAST half the PS2 owners will get a PS3, most likely more than that (Sony, without question, is on fire right now) But the majority of casual gamers, Sony's bread and butter, are not in to the politics of gaming.

Like I said, they dont care about reading a review, looking for polished games or looking for specific developers or publishers; They'll go wherever the games with the "it" factor are - If their friends talk about, if it's mentioned on the Daily Show, if the commercial is awesome, they'll be ready and waiting money-in-hand. In otherwords, if the PS3 losses popularity most people in the Sony camp (casual gamers) will drop it like it's hot and either quit gaming all together or get the system that does have the 'it' factor - The same games, the same publishers, just different consoles. This is extremely frightening to people in this industry, because that's exactly what happened when the industry crashed in the late 70's and early 80's.

There will of course be hardcore fans of Sony, but hardcore Nintendo fans have the numbers that Sony does not. I expect that to change with PS3, but i'm not sure how it will change. There's only two schools of thinking on the matter: It will be great or it will suck hard. Some people cant wait, and some people are jumping off of Sony's boat like it's sinking. Only time will tell what the outcome will be but it's completely grey right now.

I'd have to take your word for it that the majority of the Playstation fans are as fickle as you say in order to agree with you. I think, or would like to think anyway, that they're a bit more educated than that. If what you say is true then yes, it's scary.

Perhaps, Sony's membership fee of 16 million PLUS development costs will ensure quality games. But they're going to destroy the very market they thrive in, the one they created, by doing so. All those people who just want the new Harry Potter game or the sports game with updated roster or that game with the hot chick on the box are going to be left in the cold if the devs who manufacture these games dont want to pay the membership fee.

Nah, they'll just go over to the cheaper to develop for Xbox 360 which we are seeing happen right now. Just yesterday or the day before two previously exclusive PS3 games, Brothers in Arms and Assassin, were announced to be in development for Xbox 360 now as well. The tides could definitely be changing...

Come to think of it, the tables are turning. Sony is going the route of 'It must be sparkly expensive goodness' and Nintendo is saying 'We're cheaper to dev for, bring on the garage games!'

I know, and I'm a little excited for the notion as well. Not to see Sony fail, because that would be bad (another industry where MS rules is not something that should happen), but to see smaller 'garage' games that don't depend on a fat budget. Ones that are perhaps easily accessible and allow for fun pick up and play.

It's going to be very, very interesting. But in regards to your question, I was talking more specifically about the mentality of the consumers and how that "it" factor can be extremely messy when you're talking about a $10 billion+ a year industry that could lose it's bottom very quickly if the majority of it's base are casual who buy a game based on how much media buzz it gets. Popularity is a factor that no company can generate directly (though they try), it's entirely in the hands of consumers, and right now, if popularity for Sony bottomed out (dont think it cant happen), the entire industry would fall.

It would be like if Japan had a stock market crash, the entire world would feel it.

The shock would be felt but I think Microsoft could very easily pick up the pieces since they are more or less vying for the same demographic audience, and these days there are hardly any third party games you can't find on both the Xbox and PS2.

Comeback from what? Lack of popularity? That's not entirely Nintendo's fault, that's up to consumers. I know you're not talking about money... Nintendo makes money regardless of anything. It's a company that is over 100 years old, they could shut down all video game manufacturing and still be making money. But despite the lack of popularity among key demographics, they're still #2 worldwide. Did you watch the E3 video? I did some research on that pie chart, Nintendo seriously has 90% of the market counting all consoles and more importantly all handhelds. Kids at the mall talk shit about Nintendo and how Sony is so much better but Sony or MS could only dream of having the piece of pie that Nintendo has. Maybe another 4 or 5 generations from now, but no time soon.

Nintendo can be blamed for the decisions they made over the past decade (quality control, catridge format, high royalty fees) that put Sony is such a position to simply show up and take over. They put themselves in that position, unintentionally of course.

You're going to have to fill me in on where you got the 90% figure, cause it's not adding up for me. What do you mean counting all consoles? Like NES -> Gamecube (including handhelds?)? Or current consoles and handhelds?

Which E3 video are you referring to? I only watched the G4 presentation that had highlights, so I probably missed it.