6th October 2005, 10:22 AM
Quote:What do you mean the vast majority won't carry over into next gen? It looks like Sony has managed to gain most of their Playstation users back for round 2, and I bet you they'll be back for round 3.
I wish I could remember where I read it, but at the time it was on multiple game news sites. But basically the vast majority of people who bought a PS2 (from launch to the time of the article a few months ago) were newcomers.
This didn't surprise me, most of the people who bought a SNES were newcomers. I agree that ATLEAST half the PS2 owners will get a PS3, most likely more than that (Sony, without question, is on fire right now) But the majority of casual gamers, Sony's bread and butter, are not in to the politics of gaming.
Like I said, they dont care about reading a review, looking for polished games or looking for specific developers or publishers; They'll go wherever the games with the "it" factor are - If their friends talk about, if it's mentioned on the Daily Show, if the commercial is awesome, they'll be ready and waiting money-in-hand. In otherwords, if the PS3 losses popularity most people in the Sony camp (casual gamers) will drop it like it's hot and either quit gaming all together or get the system that does have the 'it' factor - The same games, the same publishers, just different consoles. This is extremely frightening to people in this industry, because that's exactly what happened when the industry crashed in the late 70's and early 80's.
There will of course be hardcore fans of Sony, but hardcore Nintendo fans have the numbers that Sony does not. I expect that to change with PS3, but i'm not sure how it will change. There's only two schools of thinking on the matter: It will be great or it will suck hard. Some people cant wait, and some people are jumping off of Sony's boat like it's sinking. Only time will tell what the outcome will be but it's completely grey right now.
Perhaps, Sony's membership fee of 16 million PLUS development costs will ensure quality games. But they're going to destroy the very market they thrive in, the one they created, by doing so. All those people who just want the new Harry Potter game or the sports game with updated roster or that game with the hot chick on the box are going to be left in the cold if the devs who manufacture these games dont want to pay the membership fee.
Come to think of it, the tables are turning. Sony is going the route of 'It must be sparkly expensive goodness' and Nintendo is saying 'We're cheaper to dev for, bring on the garage games!'
It's going to be very, very interesting. But in regards to your question, I was talking more specifically about the mentality of the consumers and how that "it" factor can be extremely messy when you're talking about a $10 billion+ a year industry that could lose it's bottom very quickly if the majority of it's base are casual who buy a game based on how much media buzz it gets. Popularity is a factor that no company can generate directly (though they try), it's entirely in the hands of consumers, and right now, if popularity for Sony bottomed out (dont think it cant happen), the entire industry would fall.
It would be like if Japan had a stock market crash, the entire world would feel it.
Quote:there is every chance that Nintendo could surprise us all with some kind of amazing comeback.
Comeback from what? Lack of popularity? That's not entirely Nintendo's fault, that's up to consumers. I know you're not talking about money... Nintendo makes money regardless of anything. It's a company that is over 100 years old, they could shut down all video game manufacturing and still be making money. But despite the lack of popularity among key demographics, they're still #2 worldwide. Did you watch the E3 video? I did some research on that pie chart, Nintendo seriously has 90% of the market counting all consoles and more importantly all handhelds. Kids at the mall talk shit about Nintendo and how Sony is so much better but Sony or MS could only dream of having the piece of pie that Nintendo has. Maybe another 4 or 5 generations from now, but no time soon.