29th September 2005, 5:34 PM
Quote:Jaffray Picks Sony to Win, But Lead for 360
New hardware estimates from analysts at Piper Jaffray have picked the Xbox 360 to maintain a lead over PS3 in the US market through 2008 but ultimate victory for Sony. Also, hard drive equipped PSPs are tipped for mid-2006.
ImageToday's report from Piper Jaffray has a number of optimistic figures. Overall hardware unit sales are predicted to grow 30% from 2006 to 2011. Most of that growth will be in handheld hardware, which has been tipped to grow 45% over the next cycle.
Software growth is predicted to go from $7.0 billion in 2005 to $10.0 billion in 2008. The analysts say that the sector as a whole should outperform broader market indices.
The introduction of PS3 and Revolution in the US is pegged to be late 2006 with Sony introducing the rumored HD equipped PSP (presumably to tap into the iPod market) in mid-2006.
Hardware market share for the next cycle is predicted to eventually be 45%-50% for Sony, Microsoft at 35%-40% and Nintendo with 15%. That said, through 2008, Xbox 360 is predicted to be the market leader.
HW Units (millions) 2005 2006 2007 2008
PS2 5 4.3 3 2
Xbox 2.8 0.3 0 0
Gamecube 1.6 0.8 0.5 0
Gameboy - Series 7.5 5.5 5.6 6
PSP 3.8 5.5 5 6
PS3 0 1 6 8.5
Xbox 360 1.1 6 6.5 6
Revolution 0 0.5 2 3
Total 21.8 23.9 28.6 31.5
Installed Base (millions) 2005 2006 2007 2008
PSP 3.8 9.3 14.3 20.3
PS3 0 1 7 15.5
Xbox 360 1.1 7.1 13.6 19.6
Revolution 0 0.5 2.5 5.5
Where do they find these analysts, and why do they always hate Nintendo...
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