12th March 2003, 3:12 PM
If you're doing a straight comparison, Super Mario Sunshine sold 300,000 in its first week. The following factors, however, mess with any proportional comparisons:
1.The Zelda pre-order campaign
This will cause a greater proportion of the total sales to come from preorders. Nintendo is hoping that by having those games out in the mainstream that it will encourage others to buy the game, increasing the total sales. More skeptical people predict that there is a fixed amount of people that would buy Zelda regardless of the preorder, and that the preorder campaign has mearly shifted the sales curve toward its launch date, but not increased overall sales. These skeptics predict that, after a HUGE first week of sales, the sales will slow rapidly and the game will sell possibly sell less than 1 million copies. I tend to lean towards a compromise position, one that rules out both Nintendo's GTA comparisons and naysayer's doomsday rants. However, who knows? I was dead wrong about how many people would preorder Zelda. To be light on myself, I made a prediction before the preorder campaign was announced. Regardless, I am very impressed by these numbers. But I must remind myself: preordered does not equal sold.
2. Zelda is being released in MARCH
If you were thinking of doing a straight proportion of SMS v. Wind Waker(so far), it would tell you that Wind Waker will sell about 1.62 million copies in the first 5 months and five days. This, however, is bad predicting logic. Super Mario Sunshine received a huge increase in sales over the holiday period. For evidence of this fact:
Source: NPD TRST
Super Mario Sunshine (release date: August 25, 2002)
August: 350768
September: 266592
October: 66436
November: 131498
December: 177409
January: 22680
With these numbers we see that the traditional sales dropoff (SMS sells 350768 copies in its first five days, 266592 copies in days 6 through 35, and 66436 copies in days 36 through 66) is interrupted during the holiday season. Zelda cannot depend upon this seasonal phenomenon. It is likely that Zelda will follow a traditional sales curve. The real question is, "After the big first week, how steep is the dropoff?"
1.The Zelda pre-order campaign
This will cause a greater proportion of the total sales to come from preorders. Nintendo is hoping that by having those games out in the mainstream that it will encourage others to buy the game, increasing the total sales. More skeptical people predict that there is a fixed amount of people that would buy Zelda regardless of the preorder, and that the preorder campaign has mearly shifted the sales curve toward its launch date, but not increased overall sales. These skeptics predict that, after a HUGE first week of sales, the sales will slow rapidly and the game will sell possibly sell less than 1 million copies. I tend to lean towards a compromise position, one that rules out both Nintendo's GTA comparisons and naysayer's doomsday rants. However, who knows? I was dead wrong about how many people would preorder Zelda. To be light on myself, I made a prediction before the preorder campaign was announced. Regardless, I am very impressed by these numbers. But I must remind myself: preordered does not equal sold.
2. Zelda is being released in MARCH
If you were thinking of doing a straight proportion of SMS v. Wind Waker(so far), it would tell you that Wind Waker will sell about 1.62 million copies in the first 5 months and five days. This, however, is bad predicting logic. Super Mario Sunshine received a huge increase in sales over the holiday period. For evidence of this fact:
Source: NPD TRST
Super Mario Sunshine (release date: August 25, 2002)
August: 350768
September: 266592
October: 66436
November: 131498
December: 177409
January: 22680
With these numbers we see that the traditional sales dropoff (SMS sells 350768 copies in its first five days, 266592 copies in days 6 through 35, and 66436 copies in days 36 through 66) is interrupted during the holiday season. Zelda cannot depend upon this seasonal phenomenon. It is likely that Zelda will follow a traditional sales curve. The real question is, "After the big first week, how steep is the dropoff?"