Election 2004: Thoughts and predictions

[A Black Falcon]

In short, polls at this point are just about irrelevant. Yes, they show that more people than usual are interested, and that a lot of people have made up their minds about who they are going to vote for, and that does lead to a possibly large electorate but not that many votes actually in contention... but it's June 1. There are quite a few months until November. Anything could happen.

For instance, for a long time now Bush's satisfaction ratings have been dropping. And in the head-to-head polls Kerry keeps improving. But not for anything he's doing, but for the fact that Bush isn't doing too well... and, to be specific, Iraq. Iraq is a huge, huge factor. If we're doing better in Iraq in November, Bush has a much, much better chance of winning than if they stay like this or get worse. If the Iraqi situation is still this bad or worse, Bush has a very good chance of losing... the better we're doing, probably the higher Bush's chances because of how much he's staked his presidency to Iraq.

A key part of that is the attention span of Americans. Or, their lack of one -- bad events in the very recent past are forgotten if the current situation is different. Like the prison abuse scandal. Proof is coming out that the thing is not just "a few bad apples" like the idiots in charge would like us to think but is systematic throughout Iraq and Afghanistan and encouraged (or at least condoned) by the command structure. But for it to be a major campaign issue it'll have to extend for months, and I don't know if it will... a lot of people, including some who have said they have made up their minds, decide in the last few days and it'll be the issues then, not the ones today, that they decide on.

DMiller is also right, though... Bush's other policy is also alienating a lot of people. His economic policy is a disaster. Some parts of the economy are finally recovering, but more in spite of him than because of him I'm sure. Oh, and jobs don't seem to be going far, and the people aren't getting the message that anything's better -- confidence in the economy is still extremely low. Other than that, there's always things like No Child Left Behind (extremely unpopular in this state, for sure!), the PATRIOT Act, the environment, etc... good issues that will (or should) matter in this election. But Iraq is definitely on the list and Bush will do better if he's doing well in Iraq. The thing is that given the nature of the problem (that a lot of what is wrong is a direct result of actions Bush has (or more importantly hasn't) taken), I'm not too sure that Bush will get to the point he'd have to to greatly help his poll numbers by November... Bush started this war, Bush did the actions that got us to this incredibly bad position, and I very much doubt that Bush and his people will suddenly get smart after over three years of stupidity.

Oh yeah, and national poll numbers are irrelevant anyway. It's electoral votes that matter, not national numbers!

And finally, yes, it's not so much a 'Kerry is great' thing as it is a 'Bush is terrible' thing. Kerry is hardly the best candidate, but ANYTHING is better than Bush and an increasing number of people recongize that. I do have one thing to say here, though. Kerry just isn't that liberal. If he's elected I expect him to be more in the centrist-Bill Clinton line, not a true liberal. He just isn't that... he can pretend to be to make the base happy, but if you look at his actual policies he's proposing they're quite centrist. Like Clinton was.