E3 Predictions

[Nintendarse]

The following are probabilities. As always, these are my perceptions. The first is the probability that it will show up at the show (video or playable), the second is that it will be playable at the show.

Nintendo:
Mario Kart 90% in some form-75% playable
Pokemon Stadium-90% in some form-55% playable
Pikmin2-95% in some form-50% playable
Animal Crossing 2-70% in some form-30% playable
Mario 128-30% in some form-10% playable
Animal Crossing Online-3% in some form-1% playable

Second Parties:
Factor 5 game-95% in some form-70% playable
Silicon Knights game-90% in some form-30% playable
Metroid Prime 2(Retro)-1% in some form other than acknowledgement of its existence-.0001% playable
Mario Golf(Camelot)-95% in some form-75% playable
Mario Tennis(Camelot)-95% in some form-75% playable
Golden Sun GCN(Camelot)-40% in some form-15% playable
Wario World(Treasure)-99.999% in some form-99.999% playable
1080(NST)-60% in some form-30% playable

Capcom:
Viewtiful Joe-99.999% in some form-99.999% playable
Product Number 3-99.999% in some form-99% playable
Resident Evil 4-99% in some form-45% playable
Dead Phoenix-95% in some form-60% playable
Killer 7-90% in some form-20% playable

Namco:
Soul Calibre II-99% in some form-98% playable
Star Fox Armada-95% in some form-80% playable
RPG-35% in some form-25% playable

Sega:
F-Zero-99.999% in some form-99.999% playable
Sonic DX-99% in some form-95% playable
NEW Sonic-99% in some form-75% playable

I have to admit that, without some help from a secret title, a Capcom biggie, or a huge Mario Kart showing, Nintendo's lineup looks kind of flakie. Nintendo's ability to make a huge splash will be determined by it's ability to find a big game and make it huge. F-Zero and Star Fox are high-quality games, but they're not Mario or Zelda (and yet even Mario and Zelda haven't been Mario and Zelda). I think Nintendo can make Mario Kart it's biggie if the game truly has the guts behind it, and if it's ready to show. Judging only by Matt's description of Factor 5's veiled game in N-Query, this title also has the possibility of jumping out of nowhere and frontlining Nintendo's show. It will be shown off before E3, so it'll definately be at E3...but we don't know in what capacity. Factor 5 has an amazing track record when it comes to production speed (Rogue Leader-10 months), so that's what is propping up that 70% playability percentage. Granted, Factor 5 isn't technically 2nd party, but it's the closest thing a 3rd party developer can be to 2nd partidom. Why are the 1080 percentages so low? Reliable rumor states that NST has gone back to the drawing board with this game after decidedly mediocre experiences with the game at cube clubs. It has fallen off of NOA's first half schedule, which is somewhat of a confirmation of this rumor. I'm wondering whether the game will be shown at all after the latest stumbling block.