A Right Wing Cannot Flap Alone, or, Donald Trump Screwed the Putsch

[A Black Falcon]

In 2020, while the public polls showed Biden winning comfortably, Biden's pollsters were saying that the race was much closer than the polling made it seem: the race was actually really close!  They were right, it was actually really, really close, and Biden only narrowly won.

In 2024, public polls are showing a very, very close race, with maybe Trump slightly favored.  Meanwhile, Harris's pollsters are seeing a much more favorable electorate and think that she may win more easily than most polls show.  And now, a poll of Iowa by one of the most accurate pollsters in the nation of that state, Ann Selzer, showed a result of... 47 Harris to 44 Trump.  If that is accurate things may go much better Tuesday than expected, but there's no way to know until Tuesday.

On the fundamentals, on the one hand Harris should be favored because Trump is a wannabe Nazi who wants to overthrow our democracy, and Americans in the past didn't exactly think highly of Nazis.  On the other hand, Trump as a white man running against a brown woman?  Between sexism and racism I would think that that makes Trump favored, unfortunately, and he has the 'but the economy' edge as well... though the economy has gotten a lot better, negating a lot of that lead. 

On the 'he's a Nazi-esque dictator wannabe!' this SHOULD have been an easy win for the Democrats, but it's not, it's a close race.  That things are close says a lot bad about this nation... even if the best outcome happens and Harris's internal polls are right, it's going to be way, way closer than it should have been.  But we will see soon.

(Also, maybe Harris's Liz Cheney push will end up helping her in states like Iowa?)