3rd February 2010, 6:14 AM
Here are the factors that I look at
- People buy a PC to go online, the web, music, entertainment.
- Cellphones (in America) are hindered by slow networks, but that will change soon. The cellphones coming out today have HD graphics and run 3-D games that look as detailed as say, a premium 3-D XBLA game, or first gen 360 graphics.
- The portable market showcases units that record video and pictures, allow access of email and web browsing. Touch screens had added a whole new dimension to it creating an even more PC-like experience.
- The market for MP3 players is basically nonexistent in the US outside of the Ipod line and Zune, even they are becoming more than meets the eye with cameras, touch screens, web browsing and the like.
- People look at a PC as: That is where my music library is, that is where my games are, that is where my school work is. That is where my porn is. My privacy, my online addendum. The only barrier between that and a fully portable market is space. If I handed you a 600gig touch screen device that ran Windows XP/7 why would you need a PC? No really, why?
Trust me, if an iPhone ran Windows 7 and you could download whatever you wanted as if on a PC at home, the market for PC's would all but die. Once that benchmark is reached PC's and desktop units will phase out like its 1993 all over again. The only people who will be up in arms are the technophiles who want their liquid-cooled quad-core blabidy blab so they can argue over differences in graphical detail or who's got the machine that can run the latest and greatest experiment at photoreal graphics. While that's cool, there's no market for it beyond a handful of people and the fun speculation and screenshots online. They're the people who actually bought the Alienware 75lbs laptop but other than playing Crysis its still for typing documents, looking at porn, reading the news and illegally downloading movies and music.
When you strip a computer down to what people want, it's less than 300 brand new and that blows people away. The normal consumer thinks a computer should cost at least a grand, otherwise its 'no good' or 'too slow'. But they dont realize they're buying a work horse when all they want to do is water their flowers.
There are custom cabs needed for film and video editing, sound engineering, all of those fun things. But those aren't consumer platforms. And no, pro-tools or any PC version of Avid does not make you a producer dammit! On the subject of sound, I see some people getting sound systems for their PC - 2.1 or 5.1 systems or higher.
Wanna see something really stupid? People who have a PC with a 5.1 system and a living room equipped with a (usually higher-end) 5.1 system. Why/how does this happen? its like some weird paradigm where we want to center our entertainment around the living room, but also around the office (or our room) and do everything double. In a portable market, that WindowsiPhone docks with your living room and the WiP becomes your controller to navigate the windows on your (1080p) television screen. Now its all brought back to the living room, central, economical and smart.
Why people want to spend 200 on a shitty sound system for their PC when that 200 will buy them top quality headphones that reproduce sound almost exactly as it was intended is beyond me. If its because they want to blast some music, then what better way than with the living room's sound system? Even wirelessly so the music is transmitted.
Then of course you have the 'kids room' mentality. Well, Johnny needs a computer in his room for homework, looking things up, etc. That's going to be Johnny's focus for all of middle school and high school, glued to it. The market of the near future means Johnny always has it, wherever he goes. When he comes home and goes to his room, it docks with his 1080p (or higher) monitor where he also watches TV and plays Halo: Adjective. But what wont be in his room? a desktop PC.
Everything in this market points to portability, the countless online instructionals of how to use your Ipod to transfer files, the plethora of various thumbdrives and the all-inclusive devices that do everything except let you download like you would at home are taking over everything, medium-less multi-media devices. Even the DS and DSi as it is right now is overpowering the PS3, XBox360 and Wii and definitely PC. Every technophile website has people trying to find the do-all gadget they know they already want but no one's hit the market with it. But when it does, try as you might, there is just no future for desktop PC's. In the coming years, entire states will be Wi-Fi, networks will run off satellites instead of towers and playing (illegally) downloaded SNES roms while hearing (illegal) 24-bit music off of Winamp while talking on the phone, streaming your built in webcam with your out-of-state sweety and talking on AIM about where to download Avatar 2 on a 5 inch 16:9 HD touch screen all while taking a shit is the future. Like it or not.
Oh, actually, this is relevant too. Mini-projectors are becoming more and more feasible, there is even a camera and a cellphone out right now with it. Once the lumens get high enough on these mini-projectors to see clearly in well-lit rooms and they figure out image-stabilization so i can type on the same device i'm projecting the images out of, why even buy that expensive 40"+ 1080p monitor? When I bout the device, it came with a highly reflective roll-out screen to project on, too. It can be rolled out to 8 feet (diagonally), but it works on any surface like a regular projector as well. All I have to worry about is battery life, and the new batteries coming out tackle that issue at the cost of an arm or a leg, but that will go down soon as well.
- People buy a PC to go online, the web, music, entertainment.
- Cellphones (in America) are hindered by slow networks, but that will change soon. The cellphones coming out today have HD graphics and run 3-D games that look as detailed as say, a premium 3-D XBLA game, or first gen 360 graphics.
- The portable market showcases units that record video and pictures, allow access of email and web browsing. Touch screens had added a whole new dimension to it creating an even more PC-like experience.
- The market for MP3 players is basically nonexistent in the US outside of the Ipod line and Zune, even they are becoming more than meets the eye with cameras, touch screens, web browsing and the like.
- People look at a PC as: That is where my music library is, that is where my games are, that is where my school work is. That is where my porn is. My privacy, my online addendum. The only barrier between that and a fully portable market is space. If I handed you a 600gig touch screen device that ran Windows XP/7 why would you need a PC? No really, why?
Trust me, if an iPhone ran Windows 7 and you could download whatever you wanted as if on a PC at home, the market for PC's would all but die. Once that benchmark is reached PC's and desktop units will phase out like its 1993 all over again. The only people who will be up in arms are the technophiles who want their liquid-cooled quad-core blabidy blab so they can argue over differences in graphical detail or who's got the machine that can run the latest and greatest experiment at photoreal graphics. While that's cool, there's no market for it beyond a handful of people and the fun speculation and screenshots online. They're the people who actually bought the Alienware 75lbs laptop but other than playing Crysis its still for typing documents, looking at porn, reading the news and illegally downloading movies and music.
When you strip a computer down to what people want, it's less than 300 brand new and that blows people away. The normal consumer thinks a computer should cost at least a grand, otherwise its 'no good' or 'too slow'. But they dont realize they're buying a work horse when all they want to do is water their flowers.
There are custom cabs needed for film and video editing, sound engineering, all of those fun things. But those aren't consumer platforms. And no, pro-tools or any PC version of Avid does not make you a producer dammit! On the subject of sound, I see some people getting sound systems for their PC - 2.1 or 5.1 systems or higher.
Wanna see something really stupid? People who have a PC with a 5.1 system and a living room equipped with a (usually higher-end) 5.1 system. Why/how does this happen? its like some weird paradigm where we want to center our entertainment around the living room, but also around the office (or our room) and do everything double. In a portable market, that WindowsiPhone docks with your living room and the WiP becomes your controller to navigate the windows on your (1080p) television screen. Now its all brought back to the living room, central, economical and smart.
Why people want to spend 200 on a shitty sound system for their PC when that 200 will buy them top quality headphones that reproduce sound almost exactly as it was intended is beyond me. If its because they want to blast some music, then what better way than with the living room's sound system? Even wirelessly so the music is transmitted.
Then of course you have the 'kids room' mentality. Well, Johnny needs a computer in his room for homework, looking things up, etc. That's going to be Johnny's focus for all of middle school and high school, glued to it. The market of the near future means Johnny always has it, wherever he goes. When he comes home and goes to his room, it docks with his 1080p (or higher) monitor where he also watches TV and plays Halo: Adjective. But what wont be in his room? a desktop PC.
Everything in this market points to portability, the countless online instructionals of how to use your Ipod to transfer files, the plethora of various thumbdrives and the all-inclusive devices that do everything except let you download like you would at home are taking over everything, medium-less multi-media devices. Even the DS and DSi as it is right now is overpowering the PS3, XBox360 and Wii and definitely PC. Every technophile website has people trying to find the do-all gadget they know they already want but no one's hit the market with it. But when it does, try as you might, there is just no future for desktop PC's. In the coming years, entire states will be Wi-Fi, networks will run off satellites instead of towers and playing (illegally) downloaded SNES roms while hearing (illegal) 24-bit music off of Winamp while talking on the phone, streaming your built in webcam with your out-of-state sweety and talking on AIM about where to download Avatar 2 on a 5 inch 16:9 HD touch screen all while taking a shit is the future. Like it or not.
Oh, actually, this is relevant too. Mini-projectors are becoming more and more feasible, there is even a camera and a cellphone out right now with it. Once the lumens get high enough on these mini-projectors to see clearly in well-lit rooms and they figure out image-stabilization so i can type on the same device i'm projecting the images out of, why even buy that expensive 40"+ 1080p monitor? When I bout the device, it came with a highly reflective roll-out screen to project on, too. It can be rolled out to 8 feet (diagonally), but it works on any surface like a regular projector as well. All I have to worry about is battery life, and the new batteries coming out tackle that issue at the cost of an arm or a leg, but that will go down soon as well.