28th September 2006, 8:16 AM
ryan/ I didn't think about the DC launch, that's a good point. But there's a big factor to be considered and that's PSX on a huge high with th announced PS2 that had nothing but positive praise. The launch games sucked, but it's Sony's next system! It must be good, etc. The DC was out there, in a market of burned players. Unlike N64 and GC the SS and DC didn't have a huge hardcore following (though the DC does now which is funny). On N64 there were games that sold 8 million copies (guess) and GC had million sellers with almost every first party game. Sega never got that luxury, everyone was still pissed about the Sega CD, 32X and Saturn that fumbled and failed in front of them. Everyone took a wait and see approach with DC, but Sega couldn't muster the wait.
Looking at now, the big factor that seperates the DC launch from Wii's launch is that there is practically nothing positive about the PS3. it's HD, I cant wait to see Silent Hill on it but more than likely it will look just as good as 360, in fact the SH team offered a word about possible multi-console releases for future SH's. It's price, it's ridiculous claims of 30 million dollar production budgets and the lackluster 'ps2 with better graphics' are convincing people to stray away from it. On top of that, the launch titles so far are not gaining momentum but in fact lose interest with every new screenshot that's released, totally unlike the PS2's prelaunch. I read that at the show, many of the games were running at 20 frames a second, so while the racing games looked fantastically HD photoreal, they had a frame rate of poop and were less than great. On top of that you have weird shortages, a launch with 400 thousand systems for the entire united states compared to Nintendo's 4 million. Online stores that put preorders for wii are closing down the preorders within 24 hours because of demand and gamestop is rumored to have recieved so many calls and questions about preordering, that they will only accept preorders for one day on November 9th. The DC had no such luck, preorders were plnetiful and the system barely sold at launch.
With sony in such an awkward situation are experiencing Newton's law first hand. Talking about PS2, in japan and even here the top ten lists read like DS release schedules with one or two PS2 games. You know that scares Sony and MS, in fact the DS has almost caught up to installed bases that the PS2 have in about a quarter of the time, and you know that scares them too. Sony may want to view the upcoming launch as a repeat of DC's, but the factors are just too different. The DC wasn't the talk of the town like Wii nor did it generate as much interest or positive praise, the PS3 is being considered a joke unlike how the PS2 was then the end-all must-have console. Those two major factors, i'm willing to bet anyway, are on the minds of sony, and i'm willing to bet that they see Wii as a serious threat.
If all goes as planned, the Wii will outsell the DC in preorders alone and at the very most the PS3 wont be able to sell as many Wii's until a year after it's launch. The only thing that could kill Nintendo's plan is if the Wii doesn't sell at launch, or there's huge hardware problems and recalls. I dont see any of those happening come november.
Looking at now, the big factor that seperates the DC launch from Wii's launch is that there is practically nothing positive about the PS3. it's HD, I cant wait to see Silent Hill on it but more than likely it will look just as good as 360, in fact the SH team offered a word about possible multi-console releases for future SH's. It's price, it's ridiculous claims of 30 million dollar production budgets and the lackluster 'ps2 with better graphics' are convincing people to stray away from it. On top of that, the launch titles so far are not gaining momentum but in fact lose interest with every new screenshot that's released, totally unlike the PS2's prelaunch. I read that at the show, many of the games were running at 20 frames a second, so while the racing games looked fantastically HD photoreal, they had a frame rate of poop and were less than great. On top of that you have weird shortages, a launch with 400 thousand systems for the entire united states compared to Nintendo's 4 million. Online stores that put preorders for wii are closing down the preorders within 24 hours because of demand and gamestop is rumored to have recieved so many calls and questions about preordering, that they will only accept preorders for one day on November 9th. The DC had no such luck, preorders were plnetiful and the system barely sold at launch.
With sony in such an awkward situation are experiencing Newton's law first hand. Talking about PS2, in japan and even here the top ten lists read like DS release schedules with one or two PS2 games. You know that scares Sony and MS, in fact the DS has almost caught up to installed bases that the PS2 have in about a quarter of the time, and you know that scares them too. Sony may want to view the upcoming launch as a repeat of DC's, but the factors are just too different. The DC wasn't the talk of the town like Wii nor did it generate as much interest or positive praise, the PS3 is being considered a joke unlike how the PS2 was then the end-all must-have console. Those two major factors, i'm willing to bet anyway, are on the minds of sony, and i'm willing to bet that they see Wii as a serious threat.
If all goes as planned, the Wii will outsell the DC in preorders alone and at the very most the PS3 wont be able to sell as many Wii's until a year after it's launch. The only thing that could kill Nintendo's plan is if the Wii doesn't sell at launch, or there's huge hardware problems and recalls. I dont see any of those happening come november.