The results of various elections around the nation are in, and they indicated huge wins for Democrats, perhaps the most notable being Mamdani's win in the NYC mayoral election. Voters even in deep red areas such as Mississippi seem dissatisfied with Trump, and people show up and show out when they are angry. Anger seems to be the biggest motivator of getting people out to vote, sadly. I wish we could engage in civic participation even when we're not pissed off at the government (or that we didn't feel the need to be pissed off at the government all the time). If this week's results are indicative of what's to come, Democrats may experience huge gains in 2026 and 2028, but we'll see.
I certainly don't see this as being indicative of a long-term trend that will last through the years and the decades, and that's because... well, we've literally seen this same old story again and again. Our government is a constant ping pong match. And ultimately, I think we're simply living in an era of dissatisfaction with the government in general. People want change from the status quo, but all they can think to do is keep handing the government back off to the opposition party over and over. The 30s through the 60s were undoubtedly a time of progressive politics and a desire for change; even the one Republican president from this era, Eisenhower, didn't seek to undo anything his Democratic predecessors accomplished. He didn't seek to dismantle social security and believed it would be political suicide for anyone to try. Otherwise, his eight years were bookended by 20 years of Roosevelt/Truman and 8 years of Kennedy/Johnson, from which we got the social safety net and civil rights we are fighting tooth and nail to defend today.
The progress of the 60s was not painless, however, as white Americans sought a return to "normalcy" through the election of Nixon, Eisenhower's former vice president, in 1968, and his election ushered in an era of conservative dominance of the government; for 20 of the next 24 years (Jimmy Carter's four years being the exception), Republicans controlled the White House. Since 1993, however, the White House has been almost evenly split between the two parties, and Reagan and the elder Bush were the last consecutive presidents we had from the same party. Are we now in an era of Democratic dominance or Republican dominance? In general, Democrats have dominated the popular vote in presidential elections, winning all but two popular votes since 1992 (Reagan was the last Republican president to win the popular vote twice). Were it not for the electoral college, Gore would have succeeded Clinton, and Hillary Clinton would have succeeded Obama.
Truth be told, I think the people just want change, whatever that may look like. In nearly every election of the last 20 years, the president's party has done poorly and the opposition party has won big, and that is because the president is, at least in terms of perception, the face of the US government. The lone exception was 2012, which marked the last time an incumbent president won reelection; Democrats also gained some seats in Congress that year, though the GOP continued to control the House and held just enough Senate seats to prevent a Democratic supermajority. Otherwise, the opposition party has won big in every other election (presidential and midterm):
-In 2006, the president was Republican George W. Bush. Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress.
-In 2008, Bush was still president. Democratic nominee Barack Obama won the presidency that year, and Democrats increased their majority in Congress, including attaining a narrow supermajority in the Senate.
-In 2010, Obama was president. Republicans gained seats in the Senate and took the House of Representatives.
-Again, 2012 was the exception; Obama won reelection and the Democrats gained a few seats in Congress, though the majority did not change hands in either chamber.
-In 2014, Obama was still president. Republicans won control of both chambers of Congress.
-In 2016, Republicans increased their advantage in Congress, and while Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, won the electoral college and the presidency.
-In 2018, Trump was president. Democrats retook the House of Representatives, although Republicans actually increased their majority in the Senate.
-In 2020, Trump lost his reelection bid to his Democratic foe, Joe Biden. Democrats increased their majority in the House and narrowly took control of the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris acting as the tiebreaking vote in a chamber split 50-50 between the two parties (with Independents caucusing with the Democrats).
-In 2022, Biden was president. Republicans took control of the House, though the Democrats narrowly maintained their advantage in the Senate.
-In 2024, Biden was still president. Harris lost the election to Trump, and Republicans gained control of both chambers of Congress.
So... in the short term, we may be looking at a blue wave similar to what we saw 20 years ago. Will it last? I doubt it.
I certainly don't see this as being indicative of a long-term trend that will last through the years and the decades, and that's because... well, we've literally seen this same old story again and again. Our government is a constant ping pong match. And ultimately, I think we're simply living in an era of dissatisfaction with the government in general. People want change from the status quo, but all they can think to do is keep handing the government back off to the opposition party over and over. The 30s through the 60s were undoubtedly a time of progressive politics and a desire for change; even the one Republican president from this era, Eisenhower, didn't seek to undo anything his Democratic predecessors accomplished. He didn't seek to dismantle social security and believed it would be political suicide for anyone to try. Otherwise, his eight years were bookended by 20 years of Roosevelt/Truman and 8 years of Kennedy/Johnson, from which we got the social safety net and civil rights we are fighting tooth and nail to defend today.
The progress of the 60s was not painless, however, as white Americans sought a return to "normalcy" through the election of Nixon, Eisenhower's former vice president, in 1968, and his election ushered in an era of conservative dominance of the government; for 20 of the next 24 years (Jimmy Carter's four years being the exception), Republicans controlled the White House. Since 1993, however, the White House has been almost evenly split between the two parties, and Reagan and the elder Bush were the last consecutive presidents we had from the same party. Are we now in an era of Democratic dominance or Republican dominance? In general, Democrats have dominated the popular vote in presidential elections, winning all but two popular votes since 1992 (Reagan was the last Republican president to win the popular vote twice). Were it not for the electoral college, Gore would have succeeded Clinton, and Hillary Clinton would have succeeded Obama.
Truth be told, I think the people just want change, whatever that may look like. In nearly every election of the last 20 years, the president's party has done poorly and the opposition party has won big, and that is because the president is, at least in terms of perception, the face of the US government. The lone exception was 2012, which marked the last time an incumbent president won reelection; Democrats also gained some seats in Congress that year, though the GOP continued to control the House and held just enough Senate seats to prevent a Democratic supermajority. Otherwise, the opposition party has won big in every other election (presidential and midterm):
-In 2006, the president was Republican George W. Bush. Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress.
-In 2008, Bush was still president. Democratic nominee Barack Obama won the presidency that year, and Democrats increased their majority in Congress, including attaining a narrow supermajority in the Senate.
-In 2010, Obama was president. Republicans gained seats in the Senate and took the House of Representatives.
-Again, 2012 was the exception; Obama won reelection and the Democrats gained a few seats in Congress, though the majority did not change hands in either chamber.
-In 2014, Obama was still president. Republicans won control of both chambers of Congress.
-In 2016, Republicans increased their advantage in Congress, and while Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, won the electoral college and the presidency.
-In 2018, Trump was president. Democrats retook the House of Representatives, although Republicans actually increased their majority in the Senate.
-In 2020, Trump lost his reelection bid to his Democratic foe, Joe Biden. Democrats increased their majority in the House and narrowly took control of the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris acting as the tiebreaking vote in a chamber split 50-50 between the two parties (with Independents caucusing with the Democrats).
-In 2022, Biden was president. Republicans took control of the House, though the Democrats narrowly maintained their advantage in the Senate.
-In 2024, Biden was still president. Harris lost the election to Trump, and Republicans gained control of both chambers of Congress.
So... in the short term, we may be looking at a blue wave similar to what we saw 20 years ago. Will it last? I doubt it.