Quote:http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=15969433&tid=atyt&sid=15969433&mid=55287

NVDA Morgan Stanley Conference
by: atyguy (36/M/Montreal) 03/03/03 08:25 pm
Msg: 55287 of 55375

Just listened to the webcast. This is a different Jen-Hsun than I have heard on a couple of other occasions.

Focus of the discussion was on non-core business, but he touched on all segments.

When questioned on what he expected from his new FX GPU family, he hesitated and said that he foresees a good year for the "GPU market" with no real reference to the expected success of the FX family specifically. Said that they are going to market 0.15u mainstream versions of FX, as opposed to the "competitor" which is going with 0.15u in the high end and 0.13u in the mainstream. Says it will provide NVDA with more capacity to meet high-volume mainstream demands and calls it a "clever decision" that should benefit NVDA. Admitted his disappointement with 0.13u delays and problems.

With regard to XBox, said the arbitration process has ultimately helped relationship with MSFT, but when asked about XBox2 he was very ambivalent and said that it represented a significant "technology risk" to any company that undertook the challenge. Uncharacteristically lavished praise on Sony's upcoming PS3 and its cell processor, insinuating that it would almost be miraculous to outdo it.

The only issue on which he sounded relatively confident was nForce2.

Lots of hesitation and uncertainty in his demeanor; he cleared his throat more often than Orton ever has, and sounded far less cocky and sure of himself than I've ever heard him.

Overall, my impressions:

He is far from confident that the GFFX family will be as successful as previous generations.

He is tipping the industry off on the very real possibility that NVDA will not be involved with XBox2.

Just my interpretation, but I recommend listening for yourselves.

Quote:Nvidia bullish about NV30, in both .15 and .13 microns

Jen-Hsun forecasts millions of parts and a $99 GeForce FX

By Mike Magee: Dienstag 04 März 2003, 10:08


JEN-HSUN HUANG, the charismatic CEO of Nvidia, told a meeting of analysts yesterday about his firm's future plans.
Nvidia had $1 billion in the bank at the end of last year, and $200,000 in cash flow money.

He said four new businesses were generating over $100 million in revenues for his company.

At the end of Q4, Nvidia grew its business and upped its gross margin by five points to over 30%.

Nvidia worked off its inventory successfully during Q4, he said. It shipped the GeForce FX and the QuadroFX during that quarter.

Graphics represents a billion out of its approximately $2 billion revenue. In the last four years Nvidia shipped over 200 million processors. Three out of four PCs has Nvidia technology in it, he said.

Moving to .13 micron was very hard and delayed its move to the marketplace by a couple of months, but now yields are better.

GeForce FX and DX9 will ship in large quantities this year. "Once every four years or so you'll see [the technology] move in a very significant way."

The last big revolution was Quake II, he said.

He claimed GeForce FX is the most powerful graphics processor in the market today.

It's made using copper interconnect and .13 micron by TSMC. "It's the only graphics device that has reached a 1GHz data rate," he said.

The workstation market is growing because the industry is in the process of transforming it. It's worth $50 million, and it's important strategically for Nvidia because of its place in content and digital creation.

The Quadro FX architecture has for the first time made it possible for hardware to play a role in the very high end content market, using programmable shaders, and for films and for cut scenes in video games, or in TV ads.

Mobile graphics, the GeForce Go! brand is a $150 million business for NVDA, giving it 25 per cent of the market. "We've every opportunity to make it continue to grow," he said.

Chipsets are an important part of Nvidia's business, worth another $150 million. It only has two per cent market share but it has much room to go. The Nforce 2 is "catching the imagination" of the marketplace.

He said he tried not to be angry with its Xbox business because it gives Nvidia hundreds of millions of dollars. This business is the first entry Nvidia has made into consumer electronics.

He's incredibly excited about what Microsoft is doing with Xbox, he said. There was no question that Halo was way above anything on the Playstation 2, he said.

Nvidia will take GeForce from top to bottom of the market. It has .15 micron versions of GeForce FX in production.

Did we know this already? I don't think so.

It will be used in "low end" GeForce FX and will ship "millions and millions" of chips.

2003 will be a good year for GPUs, he said. AGP 8X is the first major platform change from Intel – and will create an upsurge for graphics processors.

Most high end GPUs are expensive, but it's not until a GeForce FX card comes down to $99 that it really makes a big splash in the industry.

Nvidia has many different kinds of relationships with Microsoft aside from the Xbox, and include a serious involvement with Longhorn.

The arbitration process [with Microsoft] is a legal process and Nvidia learnt a lot about the process and understood much through this relationship.

He seemed to suggest that Nvidia may not necessarily go with the Xbox 2 architecture, because of the enormous engineering challenges.

Without the Xbox the world would not have learned about programmable shaders, he said.

The Playstation 3 will be a miracle machine but it will take an extraordinary effort for a company to create it. By the second half of this year, Nvidia's foundry will be able to produce 12-inch silicon dinner plates, so achieving economies of scale. µ

Quote:Originally posted by DMiller
ATI has stated publically that they want to develop the next Xbox's GPU as well as Nintendo's, but so far nothing has been confirmed to be in the works.