Quote:<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">The Bug in Microsoft's Ear
The software giant is mulling its own digital device that adds gaming to music and video, in an effort to compete with Apple's iPod empire!


After getting trounced for four years in the digital music business by Apple Computer (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) finally seems poised to do something about it. BusinessWeek has learned that the software giant is working on plans to develop its own portable digital media device to rival the iPod, rather than just providing technology to partners. Microsoft hasn't decided if it will go ahead. But sources inside the company and at its partners say Microsoft has put together a team that's considering the business end of such an initiative.
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Going forward with it would be an acknowledgement that the current strategy isn't working. Chairman William H. Gates III has argued that consumers would prefer a vast choice of devices to the limited selection from Apple. That's why Microsoft has relied on dozens of partners to come up with sleek devices and clever online-music services that use its software.

LIMITED APPEAL? But each year, Apple extends its lead in digital music. In 2005, Apple's share of portable media devices sold in the U.S. grew to 67% from 52% in 2004, according to NPD Group. Making its own device, despite an uneven track record in consumer electronics, may be Microsoft's only viable alternative.

What would it look like? Xbox boss Peter Moore says any Microsoft media device would have to leverage the company's most significant consumer strength, video gaming. "It can't just be our version of the iPod," says Moore, who nonetheless would not confirm that Microsoft is considering making such a device. So in addition to playing music and videos, a Microsoft device would include games. Microsoft would probably use the Xbox brand to market the gadget. "I think the brand is an opportunity," Moore says.

True, perhaps, but also risky. If the new device comes with the Xbox brand, most consumers will view it as a game player, like Sony's (SNE) PlayStation Portable. That might limit its appeal, since the portable gaming market is much smaller than the one for digital media.

TARGETING THE LIVING ROOM. There's also the risk of alienating partners. If Microsoft fashions its own gadget, those device makers could abandon Microsoft's digital media technology and devise their own software. "Everybody will try to do their own thing to differentiate," says Sim Wong Hoo, chief executive of Creative Technology (CREAF), the No.2 digital media device maker. "What Microsoft was trying to build will collapse."

With $39.8 billion in annual sales, Microsoft isn't particularly interested in increments from the digital media device business or online music. It's after a spot in consumers' living rooms. The more consumers purchase iPods, the more they'll buy songs and videos from iTunes, and the various iPod accessories to play music and video around their house. That in turn convinces more entertainment companies to partner with Apple. "The stakes are incredibly high," says Michael Gartenberg, vice-president and research director at JupiterResearch (JUPM).

The question still remains: Will Microsoft really do it? It has abandoned efforts over the years to make everything from computer speakers to PC-connected telephones. The company gave some clues in December, when it put its digital media software unit and its MSN Music service under Robert J. Bach, president of the Entertainment & Devices division. "It's a lot easier to talk about the end-to-end scenarios, because it's all under Robbie," says Microsoft's Moore. Indeed, the soup-to-nuts approach has been the key to Apple's success. For Microsoft, it may be worth the risk.

Greene is BusinessWeek's Seattle bureau chief

Copyright © 2006 . All rights reserved. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

A Black Falcon Wrote:Microsoft SAYS that digital distribution is the future, but it sure won't happen with 20 gig hard drives...

First, Microsoft does already have portables: Windows CE machines. :) They're just in a different market... but it does make sense that they'd look at the iPod and want in on that market too... the question is if we end up with a tries-to-do-it-all device like the PSP or one more focused on its task like the iPod (or nothing). At this point, who knows. But Microsoft hasn't really shown a strong interest in the handheld games market so far, from what I can tell, so I just doubt that they'd focus on that with any device they do make...

Quote:From the sound of it, Microsoft wants to merge connectivity in all of its product lines.
There are plans right now for a dedicated MP3 Player, and a Video/MP3 player, but here is the cool part. The way it stores it media. Both players will ship with a small amount of flash memory (around 64mb’s) that will include the actual unit’s operating system and sub programs (more on that in a min) for instant unit boot up. All the media will be stored on a removable hard-drive, which will have the ability to swap out of one player and into another. It also gives the user the ability to upgrade the amount of storage without having to buy a whole new player. They plan on shipping all players with a built in 802.11n card, which will allow people to buy music and video (depending on if you have the player that supports video) through Microsoft’s own services (much like ITunes)… It also allows you to stream your media wirelessly from the player to the Xbox360 and PC. Also, I thought that I should add (though the decision to include the feature is as of yet undecided) that the video capable player should also include an GPS chip for navigation…

From the looks of it, the MP3 player (without video support) model will be a little bit thinner (width wise) than the current Ipod Nano, and the hard drive is about as thick as the Nano unit itself. The video player has an large screen that covers the while face of the unit (again the same size of the nano’s) and is as thick as two Nano players (without the hard drive attached to the bottom)… From what I hear, there are no real plans on making an portable console for at least a few years (or ever), but they designed a rough design so they could show how (in the future) a portable console could use the same hard drive (used with the two players talked about above) for its extra media features. Much like Sony uses an memory stick for its storage.

Great Rumbler Wrote:Wasn't this rumor floating around several years ago?

A Black Falcon Wrote:Windows Vista won't be out for like another year though, right? Which is annoying, because I don't want to wait that long for my next computer, yet once again getting a machine late in the OS's lifespan (windows 3.1 in january 1995, windows 95 in mid 1997, windows 98 in late '99/early 2000, windows me in late 2001...)...

lazyfatbum Wrote:Seriously if Sony cant claim stake in a market in to a profitable (comfortable) niche where a company (Nintendo) basically runs the circus, then a company that cant even get Japan to spit on it if its on fire is sure to meet an even worse fate. ESPECIALLY if it's trying to be an all in one device and cost over 200 bucks. It's like Virtual Reality, everyone dreams about it, no one spends money on it. Even the all-in-one apple products with video, pictures, music, etc or the cellphones with music, video etc are all not doing too hot. It's too expensive, it's too much of a pain, it's time for Mario kart.

lazyfatbum Wrote:Seriously if Sony cant claim stake in a market in to a profitable (comfortable) niche where a company (Nintendo) basically runs the circus, then a company that cant even get Japan to spit on it if its on fire is sure to meet an even worse fate. ESPECIALLY if it's trying to be an all in one device and cost over 200 bucks. It's like Virtual Reality, everyone dreams about it, no one spends money on it. Even the all-in-one apple products with video, pictures, music, etc or the cellphones with music, video etc are all not doing too hot. It's too expensive, it's too much of a pain, it's time for Mario kart.

lazyfatbum Wrote:Seriously if Sony cant claim stake in a market in to a profitable (comfortable) niche where a company (Nintendo) basically runs the circus, then a company that cant even get Japan to spit on it if its on fire is sure to meet an even worse fate. ESPECIALLY if it's trying to be an all in one device and cost over 200 bucks. It's like Virtual Reality, everyone dreams about it, no one spends money on it. Even the all-in-one apple products with video, pictures, music, etc or the cellphones with music, video etc are all not doing too hot. It's too expensive, it's too much of a pain, it's time for Mario kart.

lazyfatbum Wrote:Seriously if Sony cant claim stake in a market in to a profitable (comfortable) niche where a company (Nintendo) basically runs the circus, then a company that cant even get Japan to spit on it if its on fire is sure to meet an even worse fate. ESPECIALLY if it's trying to be an all in one device and cost over 200 bucks. It's like Virtual Reality, everyone dreams about it, no one spends money on it. Even the all-in-one apple products with video, pictures, music, etc or the cellphones with music, video etc are all not doing too hot. It's too expensive, it's too much of a pain, it's time for Mario kart.

Quote:Well, you could just go with Windows XP Media Center Edition. I want to get a new machine too, but I'm waiting until after Vista is out and seeing how buggy the first version is.

Quote:Well, you could just go with Windows XP Media Center Edition. I want to get a new machine too, but I'm waiting until after Vista is out and seeing how buggy the first version is.

A Black Falcon Wrote:As a PC gamer, my computer is just about at the point where I can't get much of anything new anymore, which is annoying... they all either require XP or something better than a Geforce2... but four years, you expect that. The real issue is, I don't want to wait ANOTHER year... of course though, getting a new computer is a big hassle... your computer is set up just the way you like it, and then you have to start over... hundreds of programs to copy or install, etc... *shudder* The 'easiest' way would probably be to attach the harddrive itsself to the new machine, but depending on its hardware that may or may not be possible without an extra controller card... ack... and I have a lot of stuff I'd need to transfer. And I don't have a CD or DVD burner, just a zip 250... which is not enough. Ah well...



Isn't MCE just XP with a few irrelevant things added? (and is it Pro? Home looks pretty much like a waste of money...)

Great Rumbler Wrote:Woah, multiple post insanity.

Were Microsoft to enter the handheld market the likely outcome is that it would fracture the PSP fanbase, producing lower sales for each and leaving Nintendo relatively high and dry given the DS's wildly different approach. Yes the market is growing somewhat, but can it support a market that's already filled by[Apple, Sony, Nintendo, and several smaller competitors that show little or no sign of going anywhere [the big companies at least]. Not to mention that MS needs to make their home console a success and splitting their time, money, and effort between the 360 and a super advanced handheld simply isn't the way to go about it.

Quote:My stance is that Microsoft should break into the MP3 market first, get established, then offer a spin-off games device with Live Arcade type games in the following years. They would fail if they take on Nintendo directly, and they wouldn't enjoy all that much success if they took Sony's ideas with the PSP (jack of all trades, master of none) because Sony will already have established itself. It needs to excel in one area, and last I read the music business is far bigger than the video game business. If someone could merge the two in some fashion then they'd probably have a huge hit. I'm not saying it will be Microsoft but who knows.

Quote:As far as Sony and the PSP. I don't think the PSP is doing "bad" in any sense of the word. I think it still continues to outsell the DS in N.A. and it's still doing well in Japan (not DS well, but well). The PSP isn't going anywhere and it's only going to get better. They finally have some potential hits on the horizon (Daxter being the most promising, imo).

lazyfatbum Wrote:You should also re-read my post to see that i was talking about the ipod video/mp3 players, these devices might be selling well around Christmas but have failed to grab any real market.

lazyfatbum Wrote:Paco/ Obviously MS's portable will do even better than the SP and DS combined and there's simply no evidence to suggest that a competitor in the handheld gaming market wouldn't do extremely well. The reality is that people want expensive all-in-one players and not cheaper systems designed just around gaming. The Rocker phone, the video ipods, etc are all doing extremely well for their market and Nintendo simply cannot compete with an mp3 player/video player that ALSO plays smaller cell-phone-like games.

See how much of an idiot a person could sound like spewing that rant off? You should also re-read my post to see that i was talking about the ipod video/mp3 players, these devices might be selling well around Christmas but have failed to grab any real market.

Then you say:



Which, if you would actually read my post instead of assuming, you would see that I said the same thing though far more cynical. However, if you look at the entertainment ladder, the video game industry makes more money than the film and music industries combined - porn being the top market.



Okay, using your logic, one could say that the Gamecube isn't doing "bad". And yet it is. I'm sure I could find some city or town somewhere on Earth that sells more GC's than other consoles but that obviously doesn't mean diddly squat. By 'better' I think you mean it will achieve a million seller or a must-have app. Looking at the sales of the J&D games on the PS2 I dont see that being a good horse to bet on when the PSP couldn't even sell over a million GTA VC's. As i've said before, the PSP needs to go the route of executive toy (like the original GB, GBC, GBP) by getting smaller simpler games on it. That puzzle game (I cant remember the name) remains the top seller on the system, that should be taken directly to heart for the corporation.

You wanna call me blind, nintendo fan, etc that's fine but it's not going to change the fact that the DS/PSP comparison at this time is like comparing the same ratio of GC base to PS2's. Ie: third parties pounce on the higher possible sales.

As far as the MS handheld, I agree that if MS went after the handheld gaming market they would fail at it but by offering something new (an MP3 player that lets you download cell-phone-like games) could not only invent a new market but ground itself as the leader of that market. But will it even begin to touch the level of Nintendo's handheld market? Not a chance on God's green Earth in terms of money or market share. I could however see a symbiotic relationship between the two (not litteraly) where most people who own either of the devices probably own both or, Nintendo releases a more intuitive MP3 peripheral to capitalize on the new market (the MP3-game) if Nini thinks the device is going to float. But it should be noted that in Japan people have been using their GBA SP as a camera/cellphone/mp3/video player for quite some time and most of those peripherals (mp3/cellphone/video) are already available for DS from multiple companies in Japan as well.

I just dont see MS making a mark with it unless they go for it right now. If they take their time in building up this avenue, not only will every corp under the sun jump on it but Nintendo will cover their ass as well by releasing an MP3 gadget with smaller, downloadable first party games. At which point MS would be exactly where they are right now - a bleak "handheld device" future in comparison to Nintendo.

Quote:At the Macworld Expo keynote speech[33] on January 10, 2006, Apple CEO Steve Jobs reported sales of over 42 million iPods total, and 14 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2006. This equates to 100 iPods sold every minute throughout the quarter.

Fortune magazine reported on June 27, 2005 that Apple had sold over 15 million iPods, including 5.3 million in the first quarter of that year. <SUP class=plainlinksneverexpand id=ref_fortune27>[34]</SUP> The iPod currently dominates the digital audio player market in the US, frequently topping best-seller lists. [35] According to the latest financial statements, iPod's market share accounts for 74% in the US in July 2005. Within one year from January 2004 to January 2005, its US market share tremendously increased by 34% from 31% to 65%. This success was especially based on the introduction of the iPod mini. Therefore, Apple succeeded in chipping away at the mainstream Flash player market in the US. That is why Flash players at the beginning of 2005 account for less than half the US market share they did in 2004 (their market share decreasing from 62% in January 2004 to 29% in January 2005 [36]). In other countries, the iPod market share is significantly lower, mostly due to high import taxes and less ubiquitous marketing, so flash memory players, or hard disk based players from competitors like Creative are dominant.

In its first quarter results of 2006, Apple reported earnings of $565 million — its highest revenue in the company's history. <SUP class=plainlinksneverexpand id=ref_applepr2>[37]</SUP> Apple shipped 6.16 million iPods during the quarter that ended on June 25, 2005, a 616% increase over the year-ago quarter. Most recently, Apple shipped 14.04 million iPods during the quarter that ended on December 31, 2005, a 207% increase over the year-ago quarter. <SUP class=plainlinksneverexpand id=ref_applepr2>[38]</SUP>

On January 8, 2004, Hewlett-Packard announced that they would license the iPod from Apple to create an HP-branded digital audio player based on the iPod. The HP models were the same as the Apple iPod except for the inclusion of an "HP" logo on the back under the Apple logo and "iPod" label They were sold as the "Apple iPod + hp". Retailers of this model included (among others) the retail giant Wal-Mart, which included a disclaimer explaining that it would not work with its own online music service. In July of 2005, HP reversed its decision and announced they would stop reselling the iPod by September 2005, when existing stock were projected to be depleted. Sales by Hewlett-Packard made up 5% of all iPod sales. <SUP class=plainlinksneverexpand id=ref_hp-percent>[39]</SUP>

iPod sales according to Apple's yearly financial results:

<TABLE class=wikitable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Fiscal year</TH><TH>iPods sold</TH></TR><TR><TD>2002</TD><TD>381,000 [40]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2003</TD><TD>939,000 [41]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2004</TD><TD>4,416,000 [42]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2005</TD><TD>22,497,000 [43]</TD></TR><TR><TD>Total</TD><TD>28,233,000</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
iPod sales according to Apple's quarterly financial results:

[url="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/9b/IPod_Sales_Graph.png/300px-IPod_Sales_Graph.png"]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/9b/IPod_Sales_Graph.png/300px-IPod_Sales_Graph.png[/url] [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/skins-1.5/common/images/magnify-clip.png"]http://en.wikipedia.org/skins-1.5/common/images/magnify-clip.png[/url]
iPod Sales according to Apple


<TABLE class=wikitable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Fiscal quarter</TH><TH>iPods sold</TH></TR><TR><TD>2003 Q4</TD><TD>336,000 [44]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2004 Q1</TD><TD>733,000 [45]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2004 Q2</TD><TD>807,000 [46]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2004 Q3</TD><TD>860,000 [47]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2004 Q4</TD><TD>2,016,000 [48]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2005 Q1</TD><TD>4,580,000 [49]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2005 Q2</TD><TD>5,311,000 [50]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2005 Q3</TD><TD>6,155,000 [51]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2005 Q4</TD><TD>6,451,000 [52]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2006 Q1</TD><TD>14,043,000 [53]</TD></TR><TR><TD>Total</TD><TD>41,292,000</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

lazyfatbum Wrote:As far as those numbers you found all i can say is wow. They make no sense though and they're coming from corporate which as we know in any case is always inflated regardless. But to go from 15 million to almost 50 million in ONE YEAR? When the reports say that around 20 million were manufactured through that year (most delivered to its fiscal end)?? So the ipods are all sold out now? How does that make sense? And how does the same time frame equal two different numbers that are vastly different? are those sales worldwide and sales through the website itself? But it says that in other countries the Creative Labs MP3 players are more dominate in the market, so that means the 50 million users are all American? 50 million Americans have ipods?? the HELL?

lazyfatbum Wrote:I know a pretty good amount of people from all over the country either that I met on films or over the internet and I only know 2 of them to have an ipod, i simply cannot grasp how almost 50 million people have an ipod, that just doesn't make sense. Apple could not have manufactured AND SOLD that many ipods in the time span its been available and by the records you posted it says it grew it's production to nearly 3 times and was able to manufacture 20 million of them in one year (which I also dont buy, that's an insane amount, not even the Chinese motorcycle factories can pop that many out in a year and their houses are gargantuan) and it just seems like wishful thinking.

lazyfatbum Wrote:Now this would all make sense if Apple is saying that over the entire span of the ipod, they have manufactured 50 million units (it's coming up on 3 years now since it was released, that's 20M from this year alone based on their records and 30M from the other two years) for a world-wide market but has encountered problems with breaking in to other countries because of the dominance of other brands (flash) and that in the United States the ipod has a user base of around 20 to 25 (possibly more) million people which would make more sense but is still hard to swallow.

lazyfatbum Wrote:I agree but time and again (in the handheld market) anything that's not Nintendo has been destroyed, unable to find a niche like the GC did. The last time Nintendo had a real competitor in that market was the GameGear and now the PSP and I see the same outcome. Sega could not float the GG on first party titles alone and every third party wanted to be on the GB wagon.

Quote:I'm not saying it's impossible that the PSP isn't going to find a niche but looking at right now it seems more likely that Sony will reinvent their marketing to make the PSP the must-have executive toy (instead of the 'hip' teenage accesory). If they dont go that route, and the price doesn't come to a respectable 'below 200' mark, they're going to realize just like sega with the GG that trying to float it to keep its small market share would be time and money better spent on its home console devision (though Sega's a bad example here :D).

As far as those numbers you found all i can say is wow. They make no sense though and they're coming from corporate which as we know in any case is always inflated regardless. But to go from 15 million to almost 50 million in ONE YEAR? When the reports say that around 20 million were manufactured through that year (most delivered to its fiscal end)?? So the ipods are all sold out now? How does that make sense? And how does the same time frame equal two different numbers that are vastly different? are those sales worldwide and sales through the website itself? But it says that in other countries the Creative Labs MP3 players are more dominate in the market, so that means the 50 million users are all American? 50 million Americans have ipods?? the HELL?

Quote:I know a pretty good amount of people from all over the country either that I met on films or over the internet and I only know 2 of them to have an ipod, i simply cannot grasp how almost 50 million people have an ipod, that just doesn't make sense. Apple could not have manufactured AND SOLD that many ipods in the time span its been available and by the records you posted it says it grew it's production to nearly 3 times and was able to manufacture 20 million of them in one year (which I also dont buy, that's an insane amount, not even the Chinese motorcycle factories can pop that many out in a year and their houses are gargantuan) and it just seems like wishful thinking.

Quote:Now this would all make sense if Apple is saying that over the entire span of the ipod, they have manufactured 50 million units (it's coming up on 3 years now since it was released, that's 20M from this year alone based on their records and 30M from the other two years) for a world-wide market but has encountered problems with breaking in to other countries because of the dominance of other brands (flash) and that in the United States the ipod has a user base of around 20 to 25 (possibly more) million people which would make more sense but is still hard to swallow.

Quote:But I simply cannot believe those numbers at face value for a second, it sounds like magic math to me, like when people say the PSP has over 20 million users, etc.

Quote:Also, for the love of God dont do the 'I stopped reading your post' krap. All that's going to do is make conversation limited and frustrating as with the 'you're an idiot nintendo fan' etc etc, no one is name calling and bashing in this thread except for you so if you want more conversation and less BS calm the fuck down.

Quote:The IDC released a marketing report for the portable music players to boom through 2009. The consumer market report is based on AUdio at IDC.

In addition to having DVD players, mobile phone devices and gaming devices that play back audio, compressed audio will be the key drivers of the player market during the forecast period.

The report divides the portable music player market into four groups: MP3 capable disc players, flash MP3 players, hard drive MP3 players, and an "other" category. Interestingly, the other category, which includes handheld games and cellphones, will be by far the largest by 2009, with some 700 million units and revenue of US$114 billion. The total market, including dedicated music players, will be some 945.5 million units and US$145.4 billion.

Don't count Apple Computer out yet, though. The number of flash based hardware devices, like the iPod Nano, is expected to number some 124 million units by 2009, up from 26.4 million in 2004. Also, the maximum flash capacity for such devices is expected to rise to 8GB in 2006, and 16GB by late 2007. Hard drive based units are expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 21.5 percent.

Finally, demand for video playback and the ability to download video is expected to drive sales of both flash and hard drive based players.

Quote:Even though MP3 players have been around for quite some time, the sales figures still haven’t reached their peak. It is safe to say that the market penetration of MP3-able products has been steady but slow. But now it seems that digitally compressed, and possibly digitally distributed or shared, music is an acceptable media and the consumers are realizing its full potential.
[indent]Headset CD/MP3 player sales continue to rise in the triple digits, which helps push the audio category as well. In June, unit sales were up 202 percent, compared to the same period in 2002, to total sales of 547,000 units and dollar sales were up 104 percent to a total of $27 million.
...
"The growth in MP3 has been monumental in 2003, with it clearly being a purchase criteria for consumers seeking on the go audio," said Sean Wargo, director of industry analysis. "The great news is that this trend has only just begun, now that the format is moving into the mainstream with the new profit based online music services."[/indent]

Quote:TAIPEI (Reuters) - Global sales of portable digital music players are expected to rise significantly this year, the world's second-largest manufacturer of MP3 players said on Tuesday.

"This market is booming rapidly and one of the reasons why MP3s are so popular is that they are becoming cheaper," said Tommy Tsai, a product marketing manager at Creative Technology Ltd.'s Taiwan branch.

Tsai, citing estimates from market research firm IDC, told a seminar in Taipei that Creative and its rivals, including South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and U.S.-based Apple Computer Inc., would collectively sell 35 million portable flash MP3 players in 2005, compared with 25 million in 2004.

Apple is the leader in the mini hard disk-drive (HDD) music player market, with a roughly 60 to 70 percent share, following the success of its market-leading iPod, which can store tens of thousands of songs, compared with hundreds for regular MP3 players.

But Samsung and Creative together hold 13 percent of the global market share in the fast-growing segment that uses flash memory chips, Tsai said.

Singapore-based Creative estimated last week that revenue in the last quarter had risen 45 percent from a year earlier. Tsai gave no 2005 sales or output estimates for the company.

Quote:Abstract: Arlington, Va.— Portable MP3 players — Apple's iPods in particular — are keeping the audio industry going in 2005, CEA statistics show. Factory-level portable audio sales grew at double-digit percentage rates during the first four months of the year, offsetting a sharp decline in home and car audio sales to push up industry sales through April by 17