Doomed! Third party by 2015. Smartphones, Tablets and PS4/XO power aren't things Nintendo can recover from.
Really doomed! I don't understand money and think Nintendo will go bankrupt any day now.
They'll be fine, the haters will be proven wrong for the millionth time!
Well?
Seriously though, the constant drumbeat of Nintendo hate that fills the gaming press is incredibly stupid and obnoxious. Why are so many gaming "journalists" so thrilled about the idea of Nintendo losing money and giving up on consoles? Why do they hate Nintendo so much, and want them to fail? Why do they defend the PS4/X1 and Sony and MS first-party titles, while then bashing Nintendo and saying that their games should be third party (but not Sony or MS'es, of course!)? I don't get it... sure, the Wii U is not doing great, and should be more powerful. But going from that to the reactions in the press... it really shows how much a lot of people who cover videogames hate Nintendo, that's for sure. And that's very sad. Of course Nintendo has some issues right now, but giving up and going third party would only make things much, much worse for them, not better in any way.
Some of them are investors, angry that Nintendo hasn't done certain things their competition is doing. This ranges from truly portable IDs (which are good) to pre-order exclusive DLC (which is bad).
I will eventually get a PS4 I think, but it won't be until I see some exclusives I really want. Sony's consoles in particular have a hard time with good exclusives right at launch, unless you like realistic racing games (which I'm not a fan of), so traditionally I've waited until big releases like Final Fantasy 7, Devil May Cry, and Uncharted come along.
It is observations like this that utterly confuse me when I see articles slamming Nintendo for "not having enough games at launch". Nintendo doesn't tend to hae a huge number of games at launch with most systems, but they generally come out with a handful of genre defining instant classics at launch, which is more than can be said for a lot of consoles. The Wii U had a surprisingly large number of pretty amazing games at launch, more than I remember the Gamecube having, for sure. What gets me is how rarely the press ever aims that criticism at the other company's consoles.
So I don't think Nintendo is coming out "on top" this generation. This is no "death", as Sony did well enough with a third place console for about 7 years to keep it going. It's just the cycle of consoles. Nintendo turned the 3DS sales around, and they're doing very well there. They FINALLY got beat in the handheld market, but it took mobile computers to do that, and frankly there's only a handful of games I'd actually want to play on those just yet. The Wii U had great sales last holiday season, but it took an unprecedented nosedive after Christmas. That said, the sales have been stead lately and they are set up to sweep up the low income crowd this holiday.
Mind you, this sounds like me defending them, but realistically I don't see how a low generation is their death knell. Nintendo's done worse off before, such as the Nintendo 64 and Gamecube generations, but still did well enough to keep plugging along. Frankly, Wii U sales are still doing better overall than those two consoles. If we are going to judge them by the crazy inflation of console sales that the last generation got, maybe some people still haven't learned a basic rule about economics. There is no such thing as "endless growth", everything hits a ceiling, and frankly operating under such ridiculously high sales expectations for too long results in Capcom's record sales being called, by them, a "failure". I don't want to see companies keep making such ridiculous mistakes as assuming they can "eternally grow", any real business plan needs to not just account for but PLAN for slump sales. Some companies actually do pretty well with the "we only expect to sell a few hundred thousand of most of our games" model, namely that company behind the Disgaia series and other strange and wonderful gems. The "every game needs to sell like a blockbuster Hollywood movie" business model is destined to fail. Heck, it is starting to fail Hollywood too.
Actually the Wii U is selling behind the Gamecube's pace at the moment, at least in the US (and worldwide too I think). At this rate it'll be Nintendo's worst-selling home console. The sales of this November and December will be key for that, though... November sales are announced later this week, so we'll see!
I agree that there is no endless growth and expectations for the Wii U were probably too high, but to go from the #1 system of the generation to this, Nintendo obviously messed up somewhere. There are lots of theories about what they should have done instead, of course, but what they did do hasn't gone too well... but since they turned around the 3DS and still have sizable cash reserves, yes, Nintendo isn't going under anytime soon. Also they're probably going to make money this year; 2012 is the only year they lost money in their history. They did lose a lot of money last year, but things are going a little better this year... here's hoping December Wii U sales are good! Or at least not terrible.
As for the 3DS, its success has shown that yes, there is still a market for a dedicated handheld. Because of the rise of smartphones and tablets the system is nowhere remotely near DS sales numbers -- those tens of millions of casual gamers who got 3DSes are satisfied with phones/tablets now, clearly -- but the market for real games on handhelds is still there, for sure, and that's a very good thing. We need to continue to have things that are better than free-to-play-with-microtransactions junk on portables!
Expansion pack actually, but it does seem to have helped the system quite a bit!
Well, the Wii U is totally dead and there's probably not much of anything that Nintendo can do at this point to revive it. So, there's that.
I hope it's not "totally dead", but it is true that so far it's been selling at about Dreamcast levels -- yes, not even Gamecube. November numbers are out, and it was only about 220,000 in the US, while the GC had about twice that in its second November... ouch. But at least the Wii U isn't as dead as the poor Vita, which somehow managed an incredibly bad 75,000 for the month.
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2013/12...ii_u_sales
The 3DS is selling like the gang's buster now. Wii U, well Nintendo had to drudge up a rather odd spin to make it sound impressive.
That said, "totally dead" is a pretty big exaggeration. While the system isn't moving very fast, the games are still selling very well.
(It remains to be seen how well things will look after December, when those who don't really bother with black friday have bought the systems they want to buy. The Wii U still has a heavy price advantage.)
![[Image: kRW3ZlW.png]](http://i.imgur.com/kRW3ZlW.png)
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php...count=1325
"Totally dead" is a definite exaggeration, but "doing poorly" isn't. And remmeber that the industry has grown a lot since then, so that makes these results even worse...
Though on that point, it looks like it's very, very likely that the industry is going to shrink, isn't it. I mean, sure the XO and PS4 are off to a strong start, and the Wii U is selling something but I'm skeptical about whether they can sell enough to not only beat the PS3/X360 sales (which added up to a lot!) but also somehow get back or replace those hundred million Wii sales which mostly seem to have vanished to cellphones and what have you... and on handhelds the situation is even worse, with the 3DS doing only alright (it will never, ever match the DS) and the Vita a total failure. Of course, for handhelds cellphones and tablets have taken a lot of that market, and those are devices which can play games, but it's not quite the same thing... it'd be sad to see this as the first generation where dedicated console and handheld sales total decline. Yes, the industry's been all up, for 40 years now, comparing each generation to the next... but it'll be very hard for that to continue another generation, I think. You'd need something over 240 million or so on the console side to beat the 7th gen total, and the handheld side is hopeless.
I never really understood why Nintendo thought there would ever be a use for a tablet on a controller that made up for all the obvious shortfalls of having a controller that ridiculous.
The Wii was a success because Nintendo learned how to make people want motion control. They're not making anybody, apparently, appreciate the benefits of a tablet on a controller.
The Wii U probably would have sold better if it had JUST been a tablet.
We have that, it's called the 3DS.
Frankly, I've been having great fun on my Wii U, and I can say this: Rayman Legends really puts that second screen to use. NintendoLand does as well, being a collection of mini-games more engaging than the Wii Sports collections.
All said, it doesn't appear to have been doing very well. It certainly is no Virtual Boy, but yeah, it's becoming clear that Nintendo is going to be a third tier this gen. What can I say in their defense? Well, unlike Sega, Nintendo isn't trailing a constant stream of failed consoles (the Genesis did well in the US, but bombed in Japan, and the Saturn did well in Japan, but bombed in the US). Nintendo came off one of the most successful consoles ever with the Wii, and the 3DS is selling like crazy at this point. I think Nintendo is sitting in a good enough position that the Wii U will last an entire generation even at Dreamcast level sales.
That said, I suspect that in the next generation, Nintendo will call off this "make the consoles only as strong as the last generation" design that they started with the Wii. They may decide that the only way to compete is to make a console as expensive and powerful as their competition (like how the Gamecube and every system before that was in the same league as the systems it sold alongside). The Wii U gamepad is incredibly bulky, but frankly not too overwhelmingly big. It is surprisingly light for the size and I've not had much of an issue, but taking away analog triggers was a big mistake I think. They'll have to undo that in the next generation.
All I can say is Nintendo has at least embraced online in a way we haven't seen before. There's work to be done, but if they have to spend a whole generation getting that sorted out, it'll be worth it. At any rate, I don't think that this generation is going to "kill" Nintendo, any more than the utter failure of the Vita will "kill" Sony. What would kill them is a combined failed launch of both a portable system and a home console, right after a generation of a failed console.
I agree, Nintendo probably will have to give up on one-gen-back tech now. It worked well enough with the Wii, but they now know they can't rely on that kind of success all the time, not with how fast technology changes. The weaker tech is hurting them a lot more this time because they didn't come up with an idea that the mass market grabbed on like they did motion controls. And while I understand what Nintendo was thinking, about how popular tablets are now, I can see why; the Wii tablet just isn't as unique, or anywhere near as simple and approachable, as the Wiimote is. I've said before though that I think Nintendo should have made a more powerful console with a Wiimote+nunchuck setup again as the main controller, with the Wii U Pro controller as the alternative "normal" pad, and I still think that; the tablet is interesting, but it's not simple and is expensive to make and get working. Streaming stuff to the tablet limits system power for sure... I wonder what they'll do next time. But the tablet does exist. And on that note, one other game I've heard that makes good use of the tablet is Game & Wario.
You're right that given that the 3DS is a success Nintendo isn't in imminent danger or anything, though; the people saying that are greatly exaggerating. But considering what the Wii was, it's definitely not a good position to be in, and it's really unfortunate that Nintendo messed up enough to give all of their haters, which there seem to be so many of in the press, grounds to go out Nintendo-bashing again. You're right about Nintendo and online, though -- they still have room for improvement, but they've definitely come a long way over the past years, and have a much better net infrastructure on their systems than they've ever had before. That is great to see. They do still worry about privacy -- taking down that 3DS Swapnote thing or whatever because of worries about pedophiles using it to message children, or something, was it? -- but they're obviously improving a lot.
Quote:At any rate, I don't think that this generation is going to "kill" Nintendo, any more than the utter failure of the Vita will "kill" Sony. What would kill them is a combined failed launch of both a portable system and a home console, right after a generation of a failed console.
Yeah, that might be tough for even Nintendo to survive without making major changes that probably would end up ruining the company. Let's hope it doesn't happen. :(
I don't see why people think "put your games on the iPad" is a solution. Their portable system isn't the one that's failing. Wouldn't "put your games on the PC" make at least a little more sense?
Really though, when I think about it, should the day come when Nintendo's portable console absolutely flops and they are forced to make a choice, frankly I don't think going to portable devices like smart phones would be the worst idea, BUT, and this is critical, the button issue would need to be addressed.
Either Nintendo would need to sign a deal with Apple so that Apple produced a Nintendo designed iPhone with buttons worked in, or Nintendo themselves would need to sell their own controller addon. A good one, one that they advertise constantly along with the games, and one that becomes the de facto standard on Apple devices. Do this, and Nintendo's games could work on the iPhone. Otherwise, good luck playing Mario with a touch screen.
But yes, doomed.
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New Nintendo announcements, trying to stave off all of the "Nintendo is doomed!" talk:
-Nintendo DS virtual console for Wii U (touchscreen is touchscreen, TV is upper screen)
-Nintendo is looking into doing "non-wearable" (this is somehow a step past wearable tech, though how exactly I don't know) "quality of life" products that are for adults and... I don't know, they didn't explain things well at all. See here:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=760097 We'll learn more about this in the future, if anything comes of it.
-Nintendo may make its handhelds and consoles more similar in the future. Lazy talked about something like this years ago, and a variant of it could happen?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=760127
For the full briefing summary, see:
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/01/29/l...direction/
Also, Iwata is not resigning. The Nintendo board will take mandatory pay cuts between February and June of this year, though.
Personally I find it a little shocking for a company to give their executives pay cuts instead of laying off hundreds of people. If only that was normal in America...
But you know, with only half the wages, they will be exactly half as motivated, because that's how basic human psychology works. BOW BEFORE THE INVISIBLE HAND!
In America, the execs would have punished themselves with a $60 million bonus and made penance by laying off 4,000 employees, raiding their retirement accounts, and cutting benefits.
Yeah, that's for sure. Nintendo's response is a definite example of cultural differences. American companies would never do that.
Sales of the Wii U this February have apparently more than doubled from... last February. Credit is going to Tropical Freeze, which I intend to pick up next month. It remains to be seen if this is just a slight bump or if it will turn into long term sales increase for Nintendo.
At any rate, I still must say that I've been playing my Wii U far more often than my PS4. Simply put, the PS4 has done everything right, but it doesn't have any GAMES right now. I got the danged thing far too early, and frankly I'm shocked I made such a mistake. This is the first time I picked up a Playstation console THIS soon after launch, and I should know by now that the best thing to do with a Sony console is wait at least 6 months to a year before picking one up because it simply WON'T have the games at first. This is a fact most gamers already know, so I have to ask, why is it that the editors on the big game news sites are ignoring that while simultaneously insulting Nintendo for having "no games" on the Wii U? That seems flat out false, unless you are only talking about 3rd party support.