Yeah well, the PSP is likely to grab market share from the Nintendo because up until now, Nintendo has been a virtual monopoly. Its curious to see how much of a new market Sony will create, BUT, it is HIGHLY likely that Sony will steal from Nintendo's market. The reason I'm pessimistic is that its almost like the DS wasn't truly ready to launch until the end of 2005. Unfortunately, I'm also curious if this is just Nintendo's regular style as seen with the N64 and GC, or is it because Nintendo does not have the capacity to mobilize enough resources to squash the PSP dead on arrival.
Whatever it is, this 3 Pillars thing... Nintendo should have spend its resources on a GBA successor that would have rivaled the PSP in all aspects in a more conventional war. The DS is still an experiment, and its even worst when you can't even get your act together to run the experiment.
True, far from failure, but not in the long run. Its not going to be Nintendo's ace or anything thats going to help it maintain handheld market monopoly. If its reminiscent of anything, its reminiscent of Sony and the PSX beating Nintendo in the console market and sending them to the background. Its going to be a bad long year for the DS before Nintendo even gets out the heavy hitting killer apps for the DS. By that time, Nintendo might have missed the critical fanbase building period by loosing everyone's confidence in the machine as well as all the investors and developers jumping ship for the same reason.
He said they'll move to the PC??
I vaguely Mr. Yamauchi and Miyamoto mentioned it in passing in some interview some years ago when they were asked about what Nintendo will do if it goes the way of Sega. They mentioned they would rather develop for the PC rather than work on the other consoles, but Nintendo games will always be around somewhere. Of course they flat denied the possibility of even having to go that far, but I don't know how serious they were in that interview.
Quote:Yeah well, the PSP is likely to grab market share from the Nintendo because up until now, Nintendo has been a virtual monopoly. Its curious to see how much of a new market Sony will create, BUT, it is HIGHLY likely that Sony will steal from Nintendo's market. The reason I'm pessimistic is that its almost like the DS wasn't truly ready to launch until the end of 2005. Unfortunately, I'm also curious if this is just Nintendo's regular style as seen with the N64 and GC, or is it because Nintendo does not have the capacity to mobilize enough resources to squash the PSP dead on arrival.
Whatever it is, this 3 Pillars thing... Nintendo should have spend its resources on a GBA successor that would have rivaled the PSP in all aspects in a more conventional war. The DS is still an experiment, and its even worst when you can't even get your act together to run the experiment.
True, far from failure, but not in the long run. Its not going to be Nintendo's ace or anything thats going to help it maintain handheld market monopoly. If its reminiscent of anything, its reminiscent of Sony and the PSX beating Nintendo in the console market and sending them to the background. Its going to be a bad long year for the DS before Nintendo even gets out the heavy hitting killer apps for the DS. By that time, Nintendo might have missed the critical fanbase building period by loosing everyone's confidence in the machine as well as all the investors and developers jumping ship for the same reason.
Yeah, that's mostly right. Well, the first two paragraphs at least. I'm not nearly that dim about the DS's chances during this year... yeah, it's not the largest software lineup ever, but there is going to be a series of good solid titles coming, starting with Wario Ware now. The PSP might get more titles overall (though software numbers will be greatly affected by the comparitive sales of the two consoles -- a race the DS is winning at the moment), but we don't know that yet. The DS... it did seem like it launched early or something, given the mediocre software lineup and the lack of a strong followup (we're just getting the next good game now...). And yes, the GC did kind of go like that as well (as for the N64, it was pretty bad in Japan but not as bad here.). But the GC has succeeded overall, despite some problems, and I'm sure that the DS will be considered a success... one thing I'd say is that Nintendo seemed to be hedging its bets by not saying 'this is the next Game Boy' but by saying 'this is the third pillar' -- like if it doesn't live up to the GB name and utterly dominate it "won't matter" because it's only supposed to be supplimentary anyway. Of course, that makes no sense, but if it convinces them that it's a success even if the PSP cuts back on their market share in the handheld industry, I can see them doing that...
As for that next Game Boy, I really don't know. They just launched a portable. If they launch another one too soon they'll kill the DS, even if it doesn't have a touchscreen... it just doesn't seem like good business to have competing products in the same market at the same time. And that's what Nintendo would do if they bring out the next GB relatively soon. I'd hope for a couple of years... but it might be sooner, especially if the PSP manages to somehow definitively take the overall lead over the DS worldwide (It'll be interesting to see how well the PSP does in the long run. Oh, I know it has advantages, like graphics, style, movies, etc, but it has drawbacks too (price, battery life, etc..)... it'll sell fast at the start, but will it sustain sales higher than the DS'es? I guess it partially depends on how much older gamers want to play handheld games. They traditionally have not been the main market for such titles, and they're definitely who Sony is aiming at.